American Athletic Conference Football 2024 Predictions

Whether it's coaching moves or teams shifting in and out of the league, the American Athletic Conference has seen its share of changes in recent years. The theme of change continues for 2024 with Army moving into the league after SMU's departure to the ACC and the arrival of a new coach (Jon Sumrall) at Tulane.

Three different teams have won the AAC over the last three seasons and Memphis aims to make that four in four years with a loaded roster in place for the '24 campaign. The Tigers are Athlon's preseason pick to win the conference, but UTSA, Tulane, and South Florida aren't too far behind.

Army, Rice, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and Navy should all be in contention for bowl games, while UAB, Tulsa, Charlotte, and Temple round out the final tier for '24.

How does Athlon Sports project the American Athletic Conference for 2024? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 14 teams in the AAC for this fall:

AAC 2024 Team Previews: Army | Charlotte | East Carolina
Florida Atlantic | Memphis | Navy | North Texas | Rice | South Florida
Temple | Tulane | Tulsa | UAB | UTSA

American Athletic Conference Football 2024 Predictions

AAC Championship Prediction: Memphis over UTSA

1. Memphis

Coach Ryan Silverfield is coming off his best season (10-3) atop the Memphis program and high expectations surround this squad going into '24. With the Tigers bringing back 11 starters from last season and a group of potential high-impact transfers added to the mix, winning the AAC Championship and pushing for a CFB Playoff is the expectation.

Quarterback Seth Henigan ranks among the top signal-callers in the nation and returns for his senior year after throwing for 3,883 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. Three of Henigan's top four wide receivers are back, including Roc Taylor (69 catches) and Demeer Blankumsee (53) to go with tight end Anthony Landphere (29). South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson should team with Sutton Smith to form an effective one-two punch on the ground. Although the line returns only two starters, a couple of transfers - Trent Holler, Jaylen Nichols, and Keydrell Lewis - will prevent a major drop in performance.

If Memphis is going to win the AAC and earn a trip to the 12-team playoff, better defense is a must in '24. In addition to allowing 33.1 points in conference action, this unit allowed too many big plays (18 of 40-plus yards) and finished ninth in the AAC in pass efficiency defense. New coordinator Jordon Hankins inherits four returning starters, but look for several transfers to boost all three levels of this unit. Linebacker Chandler Martin is one of the AAC's top returning defenders for '24.

Related: American Athletic All-Conference Team for 2024

2. UTSA

UTSA is 39-14 overall and 27-4 in conference play (CUSA and AAC) since coach Jeff Traylor's arrival in 2020. Even with quarterback Frank Harris out of eligibility, don't expect the Roadrunners to take a step back in '24. Also, a schedule that sees Memphis come to San Antonio and doesn't include Tulane or South Florida is very favorable.

Luke McCown - a Colorado transfer and son of former NFL quarterback Josh McCown - or junior Eddie Lee Marburger inherits big shoes to fill under center in replacing Harris. The winner of this quarterback battle has plenty of support. Running back Kevorian Barnes and tight end Oscar Cardenas are first-team All-AAC selections for '24 by Athlon Sports. The receiving corps features a couple of standout targets in Devin McCuin and De'Corian Clark. Four starters are back up front, and this group would benefit from a healthy year out of Makai Hart at tackle, along with the arrival of New Mexico transfer CJ James at center.

The Roadrunners limited AAC teams to just 5.02 yards a snap last season, and even with a few personnel departures, this group should be strong on defense once again in '24. Six starters are set to return for coordinator Jess Loepp, but this unit will miss edge rusher Trey Moore (17.5 TFL in '23), and three key cogs in the secondary - Kam Alexander, Rashad Wisdom, and Nicktroy Fortune. Four UTSA defenders - defensive linemen Brandon Brown and Joe Evans, linebacker Jamal Ligon, and safety Donyai Taylor - earned first-team All-AAC honors by Athlon Sports for '24 .

Related: Ranking the American Athletic Conference Head Coaches for 2024

3. Tulane

As mentioned above, little separates the top four teams in the American Athletic Conference this year. New coach Jon Sumrall arrives in New Orleans after going 23-4 in two seasons at Troy. Although Tulane is dealing with a significant amount of transition, Sumrall is capable of guiding this team to a third straight appearance in the league title game.

Oregon transfer Ty Thompson and junior Kai Horton will battle to replace Michael Pratt at quarterback, while running back Makhi Hughes returns after recording 1,378 yards on the ground last year. Sumrall dipped into the portal at receiver, adding Mario Williams (USC) and Shazz Preston (LSU) to team with Yulkeith Brown (33 catches last year). Standout tackle Rashad Green returns to anchor one of the AAC's top offensive lines.

Under Sumrall's watch, Troy finished first in the Sun Belt in fewest points allowed per contest last year and the pieces are in place to keep Tulane's defense near the top of the AAC. Linemen Patrick Jenkins and ULM transfer Adin Huntington and linebackers Tyler Grubbs and Jesus Machado anchor a strong defensive front. A couple of portal additions will help Sumrall restock a secondary losing a handful of key contributors. True freshman Jayden Lewis could also be a factor on the back end.

Related: Grading College Football's New Head Coach Hires for 2024

4. South Florida

First-year coach Alex Golesh transformed South Florida into one of the most improved teams in college football. After going 1-11 in 2022, the Bulls went 7-6 last season and finished the season by crushing Syracuse 45-0 in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Quarterback Byrum Brown (315.5 total yards a game) is one of the top Group of 5 signal-callers in the nation and pilots an attack that averaged 35.1 points in AAC contests last year. Receiver Sean Atkins (92 catches) and running back Nay'Quan Wright (797 rushing yards) return as the top skill talent. Four starters are back up front but improvement is needed after allowing 43 sacks last year. The offense is the biggest reason why the Bulls can win the conference title in '24.

Scoring points behind Golesh's offense and Brown's playmaking ability shouldn't be an issue for South Florida this fall. However, contending for the AAC crown may hinge on how far the defense progresses after struggling (39.5 points a game and 6.7 yards a snap in AAC play last year). Coordinator Todd Orlando brings back eight starters and added a couple of defensive backs from the portal to replenish a struggling secondary. Defensive lineman Rashad Cheney, linebacker Jhalyn Shuler, and cornerback Aamaris Brown are the headliners for USF's defense in '24.

Related: American Athletic All-Conference Team for 2024

5. Army

It's a new era for Army football with the move to the American Athletic Conference in '24. The Black Knights previously played in Conference USA from 1998-04 but struggled to find their footing in the league. After another stint as a FBS Independent, this program is now suited for the shift to the AAC. Under coach Jeff Monken, the Black Knights have won at least six games in seven out of the last eight years.

After some offensive experimentation early in the '23 campaign, Monken shifted the team back to more option later in the year. As a result, Army won its last four games. This unit could use more production (20.5 points a game in '23), but an uptick in performance should be expected with quarterback Bryson Dailey, running backs Kanye Udoh and Tyrell Robinson, and three starters back along the line.

Defense has been an annual strength under coordinator Nate Woody, but this unit will be under renovation early with three returning starters. Linebacker Kalib Fortner (68 tackles) is a rising star, and safety Max DiDomenico is back to headline the back end. Woody should have this defense performing at a high level by the end of '24.

Related: Ranking the American Athletic Conference Head Coaches for 2024

6. Rice

It's no secret Rice is one of the harder jobs in the AAC, but coach Mike Bloomgren has made steady progress over the last couple of seasons and is coming off the highest win total (six) of his tenure. And in even better news for the Owls: The 2024 version should be Bloomgren's best team.

Temple transfer E.J. Warner is one of the AAC's top quarterbacks and arrives in Houston after throwing for 6,104 yards and 41 touchdowns in two seasons with the Owls. Receiver Luke McCaffrey will be missed, but Warner won't lack for targets to throw to with tight end Boden Groen (39 catches) and receivers Landon Ransom-Goelz (26) and Rawson MacNeill (26) returning. Also, running back Dean Connors is back after averaging 91.5 all-purpose yards a game last year. The line should also be a strength with three starters returning, along with the arrival of transfers Spencer Cassell (Harvard) and Chad Lindberg (Georgia).

Bloomgren's defense is also in good shape entering '24. Eight starters are back for coordinator Brian Smith, including safety Gabriel Taylor and linebackers Myron Morrison and Josh Pearcy. Dartmouth transfer Charlie Looes is a player to watch in the trenches. Rice held AAC opponents to 5.7 yards a snap and 24.6 points a game last year. With the returning starters and potential of a couple of portal pickups, this defense should take another step forward on the stat sheet.

Related: College Football Top 25 Rankings for 2024

7. East Carolina

The Pirates are coming off their worst season (2-10) under coach Mike Houston. However, this team is poised to rebound (potentially in a big way) in '24.

After scoring only 17.3 points a game and averaging 4.3 yards a snap last year, Houston reset the offense by hiring John David Baker as coordinator and brought in two power conference transfers in Jake Garcia (Missouri) and Katin Houser (Michigan State) to provide a spark to a passing attack that totaled only seven touchdowns through the air in '23. If the Pirates can solve their QB woes from last year, the pieces are in place for a significant jump in production. Rahjai Harris is back to lead the way on the ground, No. 1 receiver Chase Sowell returns to team with Florida State transfer Winston Wright on the outside, and four returning starters headline the offensive line.

The defense held teams to 22.4 points a game last year and will be a strength once again with six starters back. D'Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens combined for 21.5 tackles for a loss in '23 and anchor the front again this fall. Cornerback Shavon Revel (12 pass breakups last year) is a first-team All-AAC selection for '24 by Athlon Sports.

Related: College Football 2024 All-America Team

8. Florida Atlantic

Tom Herman's rebuilding effort in Boca Raton is likely to continue for a second season after the Owls went 4-8 in '23. But the news for Herman wasn't all bad in his debut, as Florida Atlantic pounded rival South Florida 56-14 in mid-October and had four losses by one score.

For Herman to take the Owls bowling in '24, the offense desperately needs a spark after averaging only 23.8 points a contest last year. More consistency from the quarterbacks is needed, which could come in the form of Marshall transfer Cam Fancher or junior Tyriq Starks. Six playmakers arrive from the portal to restock the receiving corps, while another transfer (CJ Campbell from Florida State) is slated to see major time in the backfield. Center Federico Maranges is the lone returning starter up front, but the senior is among the AAC's top linemen.

Despite the offensive shortcomings in '23, Florida Atlantic's defense was solid. The Owls held conference foes to 24.8 points a contest and 5.4 yards a snap. With six starters back, along with a couple of portal additions, this unit could take a step forward in '24. Maine transfer Kahzir Brown could be a huge pickup on the back end, while linebacker Jackson Ambush is back after leading the team with 89 tackles in '23. Standout lineman Evan Anderson will be missed.

Related: Ranking the American Athletic Conference Head Coaches for 2024

9. North Texas

The Mean Green finished 2023 on a high note with back-to-back wins over Tulsa and UAB but also had five losses by one score to cap a season of near-misses under first-year coach Eric Morris.

If North Texas is going to breakout in '24, it will have to be as a result of the team's high-powered offense. Under Morris' direction last year, this unit averaged 34.5 points a contest and posted 6.7 yards a snap in AAC contests. TCU transfer Chandler Morris should be an impact addition at quarterback, with running backs Ikaika Ragsdale and Zach Evans powering a talented backfield. Morris has plenty of help at receiver as well. Although leading receiver Ja'Mori Maclin (57 catches) departed to Kentucky, Damon Ward (39), Blair Conwright (24), and Landon Sides (30) return this fall. A revamped line is the biggest concern for the offense.

Although the Mean Green will have no trouble moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard, a better performance is needed on defense to get to bowl eligibility. This unit surrendered 6.6 yards a snap and 37.1 points a contest in '23. Five starters are back - including cornerback Ridge Texada and lineman Roderick Brown - and the staff brought in several potential impact additions from the portal to provide a path for immediate improvement.

10. Navy

The Midshipmen just missed a bowl in coach Brian Newberry's first season with a 5-7 mark and two losses by one score. Despite last year's close call, Newberry didn't sit idle this offseason, opting to hire Drew Cronic away from Mercer to call plays after Navy finished 12th in the AAC in scoring.

Cronic's hire should help the offense take a step forward, but Navy also needs more consistency from either Braxton Woodson or Blake Horvath at quarterback. Fullback Alex Tecza (758 yards) and slotback Eli Heidenreich (13 yards per touch) are the top returning playmakers. Three starters are also back along the line, including standout left tackle Connor McMahon.

The strength of Newberry's second team should be a defense that returns seven starters. Linebacker Collin Ramos and safety Rayuan Lane III are first-team All-AAC selections by Athlon Sports for 2024. End Justin Reed (7.5 tackles for a loss in '23) and Luke Pirris (10 TFL) also return up front. The bulk of the secondary returns but also leaves room for improvement after finishing 12th in the AAC in pass efficiency defense last fall.

Related: College Football 2024 All-America Team

11. UAB

Trent Dilfer's hire was among the most intriguing in last year's cycle, but as expected, the first-time collegiate head coach struggled in his debut. UAB finished 4-8 overall and won three games in AAC play (including a victory against South Florida).

The path to a bowl in '24 starts with a high-powered offense. Quarterback Jacob Zeno (3,126 passing yards and 20 TDs) is among the AAC's top signal-callers and guided this unit to an average of 29.9 points a contest last year. Zeno returns Amare Thomas (53 catches) to alleviate the loss of Tejhaun Palmer at receiver. Despite the loss of leading rusher Jermaine Brown Jr., there's a solid backfield in place with Lee Beebe, Isaiah Jacobs, and LSU transfer Armoni Goodwin handling the carries. Three starters are back along a line that has room to improve after giving up 32 sacks last year.

Major improvement is needed on defense after UAB allowed 36.9 points a contest and 6.2 yards a snap last year. Coordinator Sione Ta’ufo’ou only returns four starters, but the cupboard isn't bare. Cornerback Colby Dempsey, linemen Kevin Penn and Desmond Little, and linebacker Michael Moore all earned preseason American Athletic All-Conference honors by Athlon Sports.

Related: Ranking the American Athletic Conference Head Coaches for 2024

12. Tulsa

Tulsa went 4-8 in coach Kevin Wilson's debut last season but showed signs of progress late in the year. The Golden Hurricane lost four games by one score in the second half of '23 and closed on a high note by beating East Carolina 29-27.

Building on last season's progress hinges on how far Wilson can elevate the offense. Quarterback Kirk Francis showed promise (967 passing yards and six touchdowns) in a four-game stint late in the season, with running back Anthony Watkins (889 yards), and receiver Kamdyn Benjamin (47 catches) headlining the skill talent. Concern surrounds the offensive line with just one starter back in '24.

Although Tulsa should be able to score points with the firepower in place, stopping opposing offenses could be a challenge. The defense allowed 33.8 points a contest and 6.6 yards a play last season and also ranked at the bottom of the AAC against the run and pass. Only three starters are back, but Wilson added a couple of impact transfers - linebackers Myles Jackson and Gavin Potter - to speed up the rebuilding process.

Related: College Football Top 25 Rankings for 2024

13. Charlotte

The 49ers struggled in Biff Poggi's debut with a 3-9 record and two wins in AAC play. However, Poggi has added another haul of transfers to revamp the roster again in '24. If the pieces fall into place, Charlotte could be a much-improved squad.

Leading the way for impact newcomers is quarterback Max Brown (Florida) and running backs Cartevious Norton (Iowa State) and CJ Stokes (Michigan) to go along with a couple of key additions on the offensive line. Brown will also benefit from the return of tight end Colin Weber (34 catches in '23) and receiver Jairus Mack (18.1 yards a catch last year). Charlotte averaged only 17.5 points a game last season, so all of the transfers should help this group take a step forward in '24.

The sluggish offensive output overshadowed the performance by Charlotte's defense. This unit held AAC teams to a respectable 5.5 yards a snap and did a good job limiting big plays (just 13 of 40-plus yards). Similar to the offense, Poggi brought in several transfers for help at all three levels. Cornerback Dontae Balfour is a standout on the back end, while the line has promise with Demon Clowney, Dez Morgan, Dre Butler, and Stone Handy returning.

Related: American Athletic All-Conference Team for 2024

14. Temple

With just six wins over the last two years, the 2024 campaign could be a make-or-break season for coach Stan Drayton. The Owls have also won just two AAC games since the start of '23 and were largely uncompetitive (outscored 428 to 253 last year).

Hopes an improved '24 team suffered a setback when starting quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice. Former Rutgers signal-caller Evan Simon, true freshman Chris Dietrich, and Forrest Brock will battle to replace Warner this fall. Whichever quarterback wins the job has a couple of intriguing weapons to throw to on the outside with Dante Wright and Zae Baines back in the mix. Joquez Smith and E.J. Wilson have promise at running back, but a line with just two starters back is a major concern.

Just three starters are back for Drayton's defense - a unit that allowed 35.7 points a game and ranked at the bottom of the AAC in stopping the run and pass. Linebacker Diwun Black is a breakout candidate and coordinator Everett Withers will need major contributions from transfers to turn this unit around in '24.

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter , Instagram , and Facebook .

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