Houston Football Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total 2024

Houston Football Preview 2024

And now it’s time for the tweak.

Life after the old Southwest Conference fizzled in 1995 wasn’t always kind to Houston.

There were a few big moments - like going 13-1 in 2011 - but in 17 years in Conference USA the program managed just eight winning seasons and two bowl victories.

It moved on to the American Athletic Conference. Over the ten years there was a whopper of a 2015 team under Tom Herman and six straight seasons of winning football and then …

Dana Holgorsen was hired away from West Virginia to turn Houston into a program worthy of becoming a part of the Big 12. He built it up, shaped seasons around developing players and saving the stars, and it actually worked.

After two losing years, Houston put together an 12-2 season in 2021. Two problems: 1) Cincinnati was a whopper and took the AAC title and the spotlight, and 2) there weren’t any really good wins. It was all icing and little cake.

Oh sure, beating a bad Auburn team in the Birmingham Bowl thriller was nice, but that was it for the victories over Power Five programs for a stretch. But the program got the call up to the majors.

Houston did it. But let’s just say 2023 could’ve gone better.

Last year’s team was all over the place. It lost a shootout to Rice, got throttled by TCU, should’ve beaten Texas, was whacked 41-0 by Kansas State a week later, and …

Again, give Holgorsen credit. He helped get the program exactly where it wanted to be.

Now it’s up to new head coach Willie Fritz to make Houston a big deal.

He’s a two-time national champion JUCO head coach. He was great at Central Missouri, better at Sam Houston - with two losses in the FCS National Championship - went 17-7 at Georgia Southern, and after seasons at Tulane that ranged from underwhelming to disappointing, he went 23-4 highlighted by a Cotton Bowl win over USC.

It’s still going to take a lot of work. The Big 12 is still great despite the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, and the talent level isn’t there quite yet despite bringing in a ton of transfers.

But Houston is in. It’s part of the Power Four club. The next step is to consistently crank up the …

Houston Preview 2024: Offense

- It was an odd year for the Cougar attack. The ground game was bad, the passing game inconsistent, and the line struggled in pass protection. Overall the main positive with the Houston offense was that it wasn’t the Houston defense.

New offensive coordinator Kevin Barbary moved up fast. He was the offensive coordinator at Central Michigan, took over the same gig at Appalachian State in 2022, left for Mississippi State and now he’s Fritz’s OC. The O will be balanced, but it’s all revolving around …

- Donovan Smith should be one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. The 6-5, 235-pound veteran started out at Texas Tech, made the move over to Houston last year to own the full-time role, and he was solid throwing for over 2,800 yards with 22 scores, and running for 428 yards and six touchdowns. The 13 picks were too many, but when he’s on, he’s dangerous.

He has the receivers to do even more. Leading man Samuel Brown left for Miami and Matthew Golden is off to Texas, but Joseph Manjack IV and Stephon Johnson are veterans to rely on. The portal beefed things up, especially at tight end getting Michigan State’s Maliq Carr - he’ll be a weapon.

- The line needs an overhaul. Patrick Paul is a Miami Dolphin, and in all four starters have to be replaced with 320-pound guard Tank Jenkins the lone holdover.

Donovan Smith finished second on the team in rushing and had the most carries. That will change - Parker Jenkins and Stacy Sneed should combine for close to 1,000 yards.

Houston Preview 2024: Defense

- Let’s just say the 2023 season didn’t represent the Houston defense’s best work. It had a rough year coming up with a third down stop - there weren’t enough - the run defense was bad, the pass D worse, and overall it allowed 360 yards and 31.5 points per game.

Willie Fritz and his staff went shopping. Around 13 players from the transfer portal should play key roles. These are upperclassmen, they’re all going to rotate in, and there should be plenty of areas of instant improvement starting with …

- The linebackers will be more disruptive. Third-leading tackler Jamal Morris is a good place to start, and then come the transfers for the two spots - Michael Batton (ULM), Corey Platt (Tulane), and Kendre Gant (Louisiana) will all produce.

The sacks are missing without Nelson Ceaser, but the rotation at all four spots should make up for the overall lack of starting experience. JUCO transfer Xavier Stillman on the nose will be a fine.

- Again, the portal. Six new defensive backs will fill in around AJ Haulcy, the team’s leading tackler with 98 stops at free safety. The transfers are good, with Bryan Massey (SMU) and Hershey McLaurin (West Virginia) about to be stat-sheet fillers.

Key To The Houston Football Season

Make more impact plays.
That sounds so mish-mosh coachspeakey, but it’s what needs to happen. The offense needs to come up with bigger plays, more of a running game, and more big things down the field. The defense has to come up with more … anything.

The D has to be far, FAR better on third downs, and the takeaways have to start flowing. The Cougars came up with three interceptions in the opener against UTSA, six in the first four games, and three the rest of the way. Out of the 14 takeaways, nine came in the first four weeks.

Houston Key Player

Xavier Stillman, DT Jr.
The Houston defense was bad, but it had enough good players to make other big programs interested enough to take them. Now the D that has to be far better and stronger needs the 6-3, 310-pound JUCO transfer to be a rock to work around.

Houston Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: Maliq Carr, TE Sr.
The Cougars loaded up with options from the portal all over the board. Name the position, and there’s someone ready to push for a gig. Carr might be the one new part who could make the biggest impact.

He started out at Purdue, transferred to Michigan State and made 54 catches for 696 yards and five scores, and now he should be one of Donovan Smith’s top safety valves.

Top Transfer Out: Jamaree Caldwell, DT Jr.
It’s hard enough to find productive defensive tackles. It’s even harder to find ones that are 325 pounds and can move. He wasn’t really an anchor, but he held up for 27 tackles with 6.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss. Pencil him into a starting spot at Oregon.

Houston Key Game

at Cincinnati, Sept. 21
Just how much has Houston improved since its disappointing 4-8 season? Just how much has Cincinnati improved from its disappointing 3-9 season?

Both former AAC power teams sputtered in their respective steps up in weight class, but the Bearcats were able to have a moment of fun with a 24-14 win over the Cougars late in the year. It’s the Big 12 opener. This is one of those road games Houston has to steal.

Houston 10 Best Football Players

1. Donovan Smith, QB Sr.
2. AJ Haulcy, S Jr.
3. Jamal Morris, LB Sr.
4. Maliq Carr, TE Sr.
5. Joseph Majack, WR Soph.
6. Michael Batton, LB Sr.
7. Hershey McLaurin, S Sr.
8. Bryan Massey, S Sr.
9. Tank Jenkins, OG Sr.
10. Xavier Stillman, DT Jr.

Houston 2023 Fun Stats

- 4th Down Conversions: Opponents 14-of-22 (64%), Houston 7-of-27 (26%)

- 1st Quarter Scoring: Opponents 103, Houston 65

- Fumbles: Opponents 13 (lost 5), Houston 8 (lost 2)

Houston Win Total Prediction 2024, What Will Happen

The Cougars will have to battle their way through again to get to six wins, but under Willie Fritz and the new coaching staff, some of those winnable games of last year will go the other way.

It’ll be a step forward, but it’ll still be tough.

Win that 43-41 gaffe against Rice, don’t biff at home against Cincinnati, and the team is 6-6. On the other side, though, Houston needed to tooth and claw to get past UTSA, West Virginia, and Baylor.

So, yeah, the high side last season if everything went right was about seven wins, and the team was REALLY close to being 1-11.

Oklahoma is on the schedule, and it’s a road game. UNLV and Rice aren’t layups at home, and missing Colorado and Arizona State isn’t a plus. However, not having to face Oklahoma State and - even though it was a win in 2023 - West Virginia is a good thing.

The biggest problem is the lack of sure-thing wins. Every team in the Big 12 is a problem now, and other than back-to-back dates against Utah and Kansas State - possibly the two best teams in the Big 12 - it’ll be tough to get into a groove.

Set The Houston Win Total At … 5.5

Likely Wins: Rice

50/50 Games: at Arizona, Baylor, at BYU, at Cincinnati, Iowa State, at Kansas, Kansas State, at TCU, UNLV, Utah

Likely Losses: at Oklahoma

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