Astros appear to wildly overpay for starter Yusei Kikuchi in attempt to stay in AL West race, preserve ALCS streak

The Houston Astros seem to have committed something of an overpay.

Sending two talented youngsters with big-league time and another upper-minors prospect to Toronto in exchange for Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, an impending free-agent rental starter, is a bit rich for how the market has acted so far this MLB trading deadline that hits at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

To be clear, the Astros should be going for it. That isn't the issue here. Houston entered play Monday tied with the Mariners atop the AL West before Monday's 5-3 defeat to Pittsburgh. They have admirably climbed their way out of an abyss after a sluggish start to 2024. When you employ dudes such as José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez, the World Series is always a reality. This club has made seven consecutive ALCS for a reason.

The Astros also correctly addressed an area of need on their roster: starting pitching. A litany of injuries has left Houston’s rotation criminally undermanned.

But the issues of this particular deal here are (1) the player they acquired and (2) the price they paid.

Kikuchi is a quality MLB starter who should slot right into Houston’s rotation and hoover up innings down the stretch. But is he starting a postseason game for the Astros?

Unless the still-iced Justin Verlander isn’t healthy come October, probably not.

Verlander, Framber Valdez and a pair of breakout performers — Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown — would be ahead of Kikuchi on the list. The 33-year-old Japanese southpaw started the season well, but his secondary pitches have gotten pummeled this year, and considering that he’s a free agent at season’s end, the price Houston paid looks steep.

Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner are all either in Triple-A or have big-league time. That indicates that Toronto is interested in more of a refresh than a rebuild, which makes sense considering that Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remain under contract for next season. So who are these guys the Jays got back in return from Monday's deal?

Bloss scuffled in a three-start debut run for Houston this season, but take those numbers with a whole pillar of salt. The 23-year-old right-hander was drafted out of Georgetown University last season and was rushed to the big leagues as a result of Houston’s injury woes. He has a heater in the mid-90s with excellent carry, which gives him a great floor to be a future rotation option. There’s more work to be done here, but he’s under team control until the sun melts.

From a physical perspective, Loperfido smells a bit like Cody Bellinger. Obviously, he’s not that good, but there’s athleticism to like with the big-swinging OF/1B. The former Duke Blue Devil also debuted this year and was more blah than disastrous, even though he ran a yikes-inducing strikeout rate. If he can cut down some of the in-zone whiff, he could become a decent every-day player.

Wagner, the son of former MLB closer Billy Wagner, is more of an up-down utility bench guy with good swing decisions and limited power.

When you consider that Kikuchi will hit the open market at season's end and compare Toronto's haul to the underwhelming return the White Sox got for a more sought-after starter in Erick Fedde, it's hard not to view this as an overpay by Houston