Sen. Gary Peters (Mich.), the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, told reporters Tuesday morning the party is “likely” to spend more on contests in Texas and Florida, two supremely expensive Republican-leaning states where Democrats may need to pull off upset victories to have a Senate majority next year.
Democrats have been encouraged by their chances in both states since Vice President Kamala Harris took over from President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
“If you continue to see what’s happening in those two states, you’re likely to see more resources going there,” Peters said at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. “I’m certainly very encouraged, but we’ll have to see how [the campaign] goes.”
Peters’ comments indicate Democrats still have hopes of holding on to their 51-seat Senate majority, even as political forecasters are increasingly pessimistic about their odds. Republicans are expected to easily win the seat now belonging to Democrat-aligned independent Joe Manchin in West Virginia, and are now seen as slight favorites to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
If Democrats lose both those seats, they will need to win one in either Texas or Florida, where polls have them trailing but within striking distance of unpopular GOP incumbents. Rep. Colin Allred (D), a former NFL player and civil rights lawyer, is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in Texas, and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) is running against Sen. Rick Scott (D) in Florida.
The challenge facing Democrats in both states is their cost. Both contain multiple media markets, including some of the largest in the country in Miami, Houston and Dallas. Considering outside groups like the Peters-chaired Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pay higher ad rates than candidates do, it means getting outside help to either Allred or Mucarsel-Powell is an incredibly pricey proposition.
“You could spend all day doing personal appearances across Texas, it’ll have very little impact overall, unfortunately,” Peters said. “You’ve got to be on TV, you’ve got to be on digital. And unfortunately, that’s not cheap. It’s expensive to do things, so we need to raise resources.”
Sen. Gary Peters, seen here speaking on the second day of the Democratic National Convention, said Tuesday that Democrats will likely spend more on races in Texas and Florida.
The DSCC included Texas and Florida in announcing a $25 million investment in get-out-the-vote operations on Monday morning, and its independent expenditure arm has reserved television advertising time in both states.
Republicans remain deeply skeptical that Democrats could turn either Florida or Texas into competitive races, believing Democrats are simply casting about for a way to sell donors and voters on a realistic path to a majority.
“In Texas, Gary Peters recruited an open borders radical who said Trump’s border wall is racist and then got caught lying about it. In Florida, he recruited a socialist with ties to a Ukrainian oligarch accused of contract killings,” said National Republican Senate Committee spokesperson Philip Letsou. “The NRSC will do whatever it takes to make sure Ted Cruz and Rick Scott defeat their radical opponents.”
(Allred did call the border wall “racist,” and has accused Cruz of playing politics with border security. He’s also said some physical barriers along the border were necessary. Mucarsel-Powell’s husband worked for a company partially owned by a Ukranian oligarch , but has not been linked to any alleged wrongdoing.)
Republicans are on offense across the Senate map this cycle, with chances to pick up seats in seven states former President Donald Trump won at least once. Outside of Montana and West Virginia, polls indicate Democrats are leading in most of these states, but with the party holding a 51-49 Senate majority, it’s all Republicans need to claim the upper chamber and throw major wrenches into a potential Harris administration’s legislative plans and judicial appointments.
At the same time, it’s clear Democrats plan on backing Tester for the rest of the campaign and continue to hope his image as a uniquely Montanan figure can convince Republicans to split their tickets. They continue to see the contest as a toss-up.
“Donald Trump is going to win [Montana] by 20 points, somewhere in that range,” Peters said. “But Jon Tester is authentic. He is a several-generation dirt farmer from Montana that people can relate to.”
There is another candidate threatening an incumbent GOP senator: In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn, a labor leader, is running against Sen. Deb Fischer. But Peters said the DSCC has nothing to say about the independents’ campaign.
“He’s not a Democrat, and I’m not engaged with him in any form,” Peters said.
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