Daily rain chance supported by wet weather pattern

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WHNT) — The Tennessee Valley has been stuck in a recent pattern of daily rain and thunderstorm chances for the past week.

At times, the rain coverage has been widespread while at other times it has been isolated. The isolated coverage had led to some recording high rain totals while others saw little to no rain.

The strong south-southwest wind flow has acted as a continuous conveyor belt supplying warm air and deep tropical moisture into the Southeast region.

Above the surface, a dip in the jet stream to the west has acted as a boundary between the ridge over the region and a trough to the west. A boundary at the surface has remained nearly stationary over the area supporting the development of showers and storms.

With deep tropical moisture in place, torrential rainfall was possible with any shower or storm that developed.

Above is a look at the estimated rainfall totals across the Tennessee Valley over the last seven days. Areas highlighted in orange and red experienced the heaviest rain compared to the locations in green.

Huntsville specifically recorded a trace or more of rain at the International Airport over the past ten days. Over those ten days, the total reached just over 4.60 inches, with over half of that total falling on July 21. On that date, 2.66 inches of rain fell prompting a flash flood warning for parts of Madison County.

From the end of June into the first week of July the the area went through a stretch of dry weather where little to no rain fell. The dry conditions and hot temperatures supported the onset of moderate to excessive drought conditions.

Since then, the weather pattern shifted supporting torrential rain at times. For Huntsville, July’s monthly rain-to-date is now just over seven inches. If the month were to end today, it would be the eighth wettest on record. For Decatur, if the month ended today it would be the sixth wettest on record where 4.75 inches has fallen.

Thursday Rain Chances:

With a dip in the jet stream above the surface and the boundary slowly tracking toward the Southeast rain chances will continue Thursday.

An upper-level high pressure will keep the flow of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico supporting the potential of torrential rain. On Thursday, the best chance for widespread activity will occur during the morning before becoming more scattered during the afternoon.

The rain chance is forecast to continue into the upcoming weekend.

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