Tropics have been quiet but this changes in August

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (WHNT) — It’s been about two weeks since there has been any sign of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. So far this season three named storms have developed compared to the four this time last year.

The Saharan dust is cutting off the moisture supply in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. With little to no warm moist air, it’s difficult for tropical systems to develop.

The plume of thick dust is forecast to continue tracking west over the Atlantic Ocean over the coming days.

While the Saharan dust has limited tropical development recently, this could change in the coming weeks.

Latest model trends show the African Monsoon increasing off the western coast of Africa. The above graphic shows the water vapor imagery from Thursday morning. Water Vapor imagery gives a picture of how saturated the environment is in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Heading into August the influence of increased African Monsoon and La Niña conditions there will begin to be an uptick in tropical development. La Niña will support development due to weak wind shear and near-record sea surface temperatures.

Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far:

This year forecasters are predicting an above-average season. The normal season runs from June 1st to November 30th. There is still about three-quarters of the hurricane season left, with the peak occurring in mid-September.

So far this season, there have been two tropical storms and one major hurricane. Heading into August, the central Atlantic is the prime development zone for systems. The next named storm would be Debby.

During a normal Atlantic Basin hurricane season, there are 14 named storms. Of those, seven are hurricanes, three being major hurricanes.  To be considered a major hurricane, the tropical cyclone must have sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, corresponding with a Category ‘3’ hurricane or higher.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting 17 to 25 named storms this season, 8 to 13 of which could be hurricane-strength. 4 to 7 could be major hurricanes. Forecasters have 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

On July 11 Colorado State University updated its forecast for the 2024 season. This latest forecast update brings the total number of named tropical storms to 25, with 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes expected. This is up from the 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes the researchers had forecasted on June 11.

Stick with the Weather Authority for the latest on how these tropical systems develop.

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