Do more stolen bases assure winning baseball?

By Andrew Sharp

When healthy last season, Ronald Acuna, Jr. led the majors with 73 stolen bases, topping Otis Nixon’s franchise mark by one.Photo byDan Schlossberg

Stolen-base attempts have increased the past two seasons after several years of historic lows. As expected, restrictions on the positioning of infielders and on pickoff attempts have increased the number of successful stolen-base attempts.

So it’s unlikely steals ever again will drop to the level of the 1950s, even if a low total of steals hasn’t always kept teams from successful seasons.

Since 1901, when the American League entered the scene, 11 teams have failed to steal even 20 bases in a season. The lowest total ever was 13 by the 1957 Washington Senators.

In just 51 attempts all season, Washington base runners were thrown out 38 times trying to steal. Either the opposing catchers were especially good, or the Senators were lacking in speed and/or managerial daring. Given that Washington fired manager Chuck Dressen after a 5-16 start and eventually lost 99 games, you can safely draw your own conclusions.

This futility on the bases and last-place finish was quite a comedown from the franchise that in 1913 had 287 steals, one short of the A.L. record and total that was not topped for 63 years.

The 1950s were the nadir in the history of stolen bases in the major leagues. The percentage of steals per game has been less than 0.3 only six times since 1901, five of those between 1950 and 1956. The other time was 1949. A May 14, 2022, New York Times article contrasted those numbers with the 1987 average of 0.85 steals per game and the percentage from 2018 to 2021 – just under 0.5 per game.

It’s hardly a surprise that 10 of the lowest 21 team totals come from the 1950s. Add 1949 and 1960, the total is 12 of 21. The 1958 Senators stole just 22 bases -- tied for the 15th lowest total. That team also finished last. So did the 1960 Kansas City Athletics, second with the fewest steals after Washington with 16.

Yet a near-record low total did not automatically doom a team in the standings. Winning teams and bad teams are equally represented among those that stole the fewest bases.

Playing 162 games, the 1972 Tigers stole just 17 bases, tied for the third-worst all-time, but still won their division. The 1949 St. Louis Cardinals just missed the N.L. pennant, winning 96 times and finishing a game behind the Dodgers. Like the Tigers, those Cards stole 17 bases -- in just 30 attempts. The Dodgers, in contrast, led the league with 117 steals, 69 more than any other team.

The 1953 Cardinals won 83 games and finished in third place. They made just 40 steal attempts, making it safely 18 times, tied for sixth lowest (the 1949 and 1953 Cards had different managers). The 1934 Yankees has just 19 stolen bases but won 94 games, finishing second.

The ’53 Browns, in their final season, lost 100 and finished last. They also had just 17 steals. Between them, the two St. Louis teams stole 35 bases in 1953. No Lou Brock there.

A rule change in 1920 no longer awarded steals for what today is considered defensive indifference – let them do it -- so some stolen-base totals from the dead-ball era probably are somewhat inflated.

Before Babe Ruth, steals were a key part of scoring. Then slugging became the more common way to generate offense. Although annual totals fluctuated a bit, the trend was down through the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s.

A paucity of hitting in the mid and late 1960s could be a factor in the resurgence of stolen base totals then. Brock’s success and that of the Oakland A’s in general surely contributed to the 1970s’ upward trends that continued through the ’80s.

Ty Cobb’s 1915 dead-ball era record of 96 steals stood until 1962 when Maury Wills stole 104 bases for the Dodgers. Brock topped Wills with 118 in 1974. Rickey Henderson’s record of 130 in 1984 still stands, Cobb’s 1915 mark has been topped nine times now, but not since 1987.

Washington’s 287 steals in 1913 were as one less than the A.L. record 288 in 1911 by the soon-to-be Yankees. The Senators finished second with 90 wins; New York finished at .500 in sixth place.

The 1976 Athletics set the new standard with 341 and finished second in the West with 87 wins. Bill North (75), Bert Campaneris (54), and slugger Don Baylor (52), led the way. Soon after, Henderson arrived.

The ’50s Senators never had a major stolen base threat, but they did have two players with the worst success rates among those with 10 or more attempts: Pete Runnels was 0 for 10 in 1952, and Eddie Yost was safe just once in 11 attempts in 1957.

En route to the Baseball Hall of Fame, Luis Aparicio led the league in steals for nine consecutive seasons. The first three times were emblematic of the era: His totals were 21 in 1956, 28 in ’57 and 29 in ’58.

Yet the lowest total in each league for an individual leader in steals –- 16 by Stan Hack in the N.L. in 1938 and 15 in the A.L. by Dom DiMaggio in 1950 –- likely will be more than the 1957 Senators’ paltry team total for years to come.

Andrew Sharp is a retired journalist and a member of SABR. He blogs about D.C. baseball at washingtonbaseballhistory.com. Email comments to andrewcsharp@yahoo.com.