Can New York Yankees Aaron Judge Reach 500 Home Runs?

By Daniel R. Epstein

Aaron Judge’s power output over the last three seasons is indescribable. The English language lacks powerful enough adjectives and baseball history has no relevant measuring stick. The only players in his class were PED users in the late 1990s and Babe Ruth himself.

Even prime Ken Griffey Jr. doesn’t stack up. He belted 161 home runs from 1996-1998 with a 156 OPS+ over that span. Judge might surpass that total. He has 140 and counting since 2022—even though he missed two months last season—with a three-year OPS+ of 203! Ralph Kiner holds the record for being the fastest player to 300 home runs, needing only 1,087 games. Judge has 298 through 946 games and will probably break the record this week

The only hurdle that can prevent him from reaching the 500-homer milestone is time. When he turned 25 on April 26, 2017, he was nothing more than an old rookie off to a hot start. He blasted an opposite-field bomb into the Red Sox bullpen in Fenway Park that day, but it was only the 11th of his career.

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees in 2017.Photo byKeith Allison

Most of the 28 players in the 500 club banked at least 100 by their 25th birthday, but there are a few who had slower starts. David Ortiz, who was still with the Minnesota Twins, had only amassed 20. To make up for it he needed to smash at least 34 of them in his age-39 season—and he surpassed that figure with 37 that year, then hit 38 when he was 40. Ortiz had an uncommonly flat aging curve, probably because he was a designated hitter who played just 278 games in the field in his entire 20-year career. Judge doesn’t have that luxury, and he already has a longer injury ledger, too.

Judge is 32 now and he’s on pace for 58 this season, which would give him 315 in his career. Does he have 185 left in his bat from 2025 onward? He’s under contract for seven more seasons through 2031, which means he would need to average 26.4 per year through age 39. That seems laughably easy for him right now—he blasted 25 of them in May and June alone—but we don’t know how deep into his thirties he can keep up his historic output.

Projecting how he will age is nothing more than guesswork. We have to assume a more reasonable number than 60 or even 50 in 2025 simply because there are so many things that could knock him off course—age, injury, and the fact that it was impossible to hit this many in a short span without cheating until he started doing it. Let’s predict 45 next year—still an absurd amount when you think about it—and then project a decline thereafter.

Photo byDaniel Epstein

With him going deep every two or three days right now, it’s hard to envision him finishing with “only” 35 in 2026, but then again, 2024 is “only” his third season topping 40. In this scenario, he would become a part-time player in his late thirties, which is a real possibility if injuries slow him down. He would fall 25 short of 500, even though he would still reach the Hall of Fame easily.

Just for fun, let’s give him Ortiz’s home run totals for ages 33-40.

Photo byDaniel Epstein

There’s no way he comes close to this without switching to DH full-time in a few years. That role on the Yankees is occupied by Giancarlo Stanton for three more seasons (another fascinating player to see if he can reach 500), so let’s say Judge takes over as the DH in 2028. He would then have to sign another one-year contract for 2032 after his current deal expires. 567 home runs would be 14th all-time, two behind Rafael Palmeiro and four ahead of Reggie Jackson.

When Judge was born in 1992, there were 14 players with 500 home runs. Now there are twice as many, and some achieved that milestone through dubious means. The accomplishment has lost some of its luster, but if he reaches it despite his late start, he will remind us why it mattered in the first place. He’s one of the most prolific power hitters ever and we’re all fortunate we get to watch him in his prime.

Daniel R. Epstein serves as a co-director of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America. He writes for Baseball Prospectus and Forbes SportsMoney.