Free Agent Defections Could Reverse Rise Of Padres In NL West

By Dan Schlossberg

After giving the Dodgers a run for their money in the National League West this season, the San Diego Padres face massive free agent defections this winter.

Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, recovering from shoulder surgery, could leave — if he finds a team willing to wait a month or two into next season — but also headed out the door are catcher Kyle Higashioka and All-Stars Jurickson Profar, the left-fielder, and left-handed closer Tanner Scott.

That’s a tall order and one that will be difficult to replace, even though the Padres have a history of spending like a big-market club in the free-agent market.

Picturesque Petco Park packs in Padres enthusiasts nightly.Photo byWikimedia

San Diego would like to keep all of its potential free agents, according to President of Baseball Operations AJ Preller, but that won’t be possible because of recent payroll paring coupled with arbitration-inspired raises for many on the roster.

Bringing back Juan Soto, the top free agent this fall, seems out of the question — especially with the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers expected to bid heavily.

San Diego is solidly mid-pack with a $159 million payroll, according to Roster Resource, but has six free agents this year and four more, including three-time batting champ Luis Arraez, next fall. In addition, the team must replace erstwhile workhorse Joe Musgrove, a San Diego native who authored the only no-hitter in Padres history.

Musgrove tore his UCL while dueling the Dodgers in the NL Division Series earlier this month. He will miss all of the 2025 season and possibly more.

The Padres closed the gap in the NL West to five games while finishing a solid second, four games up on the Arizona Diamondbacks, the defending NL champions.

Since the Dodgers are expected to bring in more top talent, including Southern California native Max Fried and maybe even Juan Soto, the Padres will have a tough time finishing first in an extremely difficult division.

In fact, it may be difficult for them to avoid dropping into fourth place, behind the Dodgers, D’backs, and Giants but ahead of the moribund Rockies.

San Diego took pains to slice $90 million from its payroll before the 2024 campaign, letting Blake Snell and Josh Hader ride free agency to greener pastures, but still has four players earning $20 million each plus another (Manny Machado) who’s close.

Xander Bogaerts, whose 11-year contract runs into 2033, is the highest-paid Padre at $25,454,545 and Fernando Tatis, Jr. will reach that level in 2027, as his 14-year contract stipulates. That same season, Machado’s escalating contract will put him at $39,090,909.

At least San Diego has an enthusiastic and healthy fan base, who flock to Petco Park on foot or by streetcar (light rail in the modern vernacular). They help pay the freight but will they turn out if the team falters?

Keeping Profar, who became a surprise All-Star while playing for peanuts ($1 million deal when he found no other takers), and Higashioka, an unexpected power source in the playoffs, makes sense.

Their bullpen, headed by Robert Suarez, seems strong enough to sustain the loss of Scott, while Bogaerts, Tatis, and Jake Cronenworth all could fill in for Kim — at least temporarily.

But it could be a long hot summer in San Diego, since pitching ace Yu Darvish is pushing 40 and there could be too many holes in the 2025 lineup.

Here’s The Pitch weekend editor Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of Home Run King: the Remarkable Record of Hank Aaron and 40 other baseball books. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.