Severe storm train to return to north-central US

A familiar setup where severe thunderstorms and flash flooding may be daily visitors will return to portions of the northern Plains and Midwest next week.

A pattern similar to the one from late June to mid-July which brought flooding and damaging winds to parts of the northern Plains and Midwest is poised to return next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

When a large area of high pressure sets up at most levels of the atmosphere during the summer, it creates a large heat dome. In this case, that zone will be centered over the southern Plains and Rockies next week.

Disturbances in the jet stream over the northern and eastern tiers of the heat dome will be the focusing point for thunderstorms and rounds of severe thunderstorms. Some of these storms may organize into large thunderstorm complexes with powerful wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning and flash flooding. In some cases, tornadoes can also occur.

When a particularly severe complex persists for 400 miles or more with consistently high wind and damage regularly exists along that swath, a derecho may be declared. A derecho passed through portions of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana last week. There is the potential for another derecho next week, but most likely this would occur in a somewhat different swath.

Periods of severe thunderstorms can bring hurricane-force wind gusts and tremendous rainfall in lieu of a derecho. As these storms approach and pass over the airport hubs, ground stops can cause major flight delays. Some of the most intense and unstable thunderstorm complexes can also trigger tornadoes.

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"At this time, the zone from the eastern part of the Dakotas southeastward to Kentucky and Tennessee will be at risk for one or more of the thunderstorm complexes that can bring damaging and disruptive severe weather next week with the first possible as early as Monday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

Where the storms are most severe, long-lasting power outages as well as small stream and street flooding may be possible.

The same jet stream pattern is forecast to carry rounds of smoke from Canadian wildfires into parts of the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest.

Most of the smoke will be high-flying and appear as haze, but there can be times when the smoke drops down close to the ground and affects the visibility and air quality.

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