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2024 Indy 500 odds, predictions, time, date, Indianapolis 500 starting grid: Model reveals surprising picks
By CBS Sports Staff,
2024-05-26
The IndyCar Series will hold its flagship race on Sunday with the 2024 Indianapolis 500. A 33-car field will battle for 200 laps at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, with this being the 108th edition of the race. Helio Castroneves is aiming for his record fifth race victory and is one of eight former champions in the 2024 Indy 500 field. Scott McLaughlin, who sits tied for sixth in the 2024 IndyCar Series standings, will be on the pole, with Will Power and Josef Newgarden also landing spots in Row 1. After a rain delay, the 2024 Indy 500 green flag is scheduled to drop at 4:44 p.m. ET.
McLaughlin is the +450 favorite in the latest 2024 Indy 500 odds. Newgarden, the defending Indy 500 champion, follows at +500, followed by Power and Kyle Larson at +650. Castroneves is among the intriguing Indy 500 longshots at 35-1. Before scouring the 2024 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2024 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 NASCAR season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout then predicted a Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021 too and called all 19 of Max Verstappen's wins in Formula 1 last season. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 NASCAR winners since 2021 and hit nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead saw huge returns.
One surprise: the model is high on Kyle Kirkwood, even though he's a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Indianapolis 500 odds. Kirkwood is currently ranked No. 8 in the IndyCar Series standings after securing three top-10 finishes in his first four races this season. He also had tremendous success last season, recording two wins and six top-10 finishes. He was just one of four drivers with multiple IndyCar wins in 2023.
Kirkwood's team has also had tremendous success at the Indy 500 over the years. Kirkwood is backed by Andretti Autosport, which has won the second-most Indy 500 races of any team (six). At 25-1 odds, Kirkwood is a driver worth backing at the 2024 Indianapolis 500. See who else to back at SportsLine .
And a massive shocker: Scott McLaughlin, the top Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values on the 2024 Indy 500 starting grid. A 30-year-old from New Zealand, McLaughlin joined IndyCar in 2021 after winning three consecutive Supercars Championships, a popular touring car racing series in Australia and New Zealand.
McLaughlin finished 14th in the IndyCar standings his rookie season before finishing fourth in 2022 and third in 2023. However, he hasn't seriously contended in the Indy 500, finishing 20th, 29th and 14th in three previous starts at The Brickyard. He's also been somewhat inconsistent in 2024, finishing outside the top 25 in two of his previous four starts this season. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine .
Scott McLaughlin +450 Josef Newgarden +500 Kyle Larson +650 Will Power +650 Pato O'Ward +900 Alexander Rossi +1000 Alex Palou +1100 Rinux VeeKay +1600 Scott Dixon +1600 Colton Herta +1800 Santino Ferrucci +2000 Felix Rosenqvist +2500 Kyle Kirkwood +2500 Takuma Sato +3500 Helio Castroneves +3500 Ryan Hunter-Reay +4000 Christian Rasmussen +5000 Marco Andretti +5000 Callum Ilott +6000 Linus Lundqvist +6000 Marcus Armstrong +6500 Christian Lundgaard +7500 Ed Carpenter +7500 Kyffin Simpson +7500 Marcus Ericsson +8000 Graham Rahal +10000 Romain Grosjean +10000 Conor Daly +10000 Augustin Canapino +20000 Sting Ray Robb +20000 Pietro Fittipaldi +30000 Tom Blomqvist +35000 Katherine Legge +50000
Indianapolis 500 starting grid
Row 1- Scott McLaughlin, Will Power, Josef Newgarden Row 2- Alexander Rossi, Kyle Larson, Santino Ferrucci Row 3- Rinus VeeKay, Pato O'Ward, Felix Rosenqvist Row 4- Takuma Sato, Kyle Kirkwood, Ryan Hunter-Reay Row 5- Colton Herta, Alex Palou, Callum Ilott Row 6- Marcus Armstrong, Ed Carpenter, Kyffin Simpson Row 7- Marco Andretti, Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon Row 8- Agustin Canapino, Sting Ray Robb, Christian Rasmussen Row 9- Tom Blomqvist, Romain Grosjean, Linus Lundqvist Row 10- Christian Lundgaard, Conor Daly, Pietro Fittipaldi Row 11- Katherine Legge, Marcus Ericsson, Graham Rahal
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