NFL futures: Here's why the Colts will go Over on their win total in 2024

The 2024 NFL season promises big things for the Indianapolis Colts, who very narrowly missed the playoffs back in January. The question now is whether they will meet expectations — both on the field and at sportsbooks.

The over/under for wins this season for the Colts is set at 8.5 and DraftKings is favoring the Under to hit at -125, with the Over listed at -105. Indy went 9-8 in two of the last three seasons, so what's to say they can't do it again?

Here are some reasons you should back the Colts to hit the Over this season.

The major factor for the Colts finding success will be Anthony Richardson staying healthy after sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury early in his rookie campaign. And ESPN's Tyler Fulghum likes what they could do with him under center for a whole season.

"Everyone is excited about the Texans being a trendy Super Bowl pick after last year, but we shouldn't forget that it was the Colts who were just a dropped 4th-down pass away from winning this division... without Richardson at QB," he said. "I'm comfortable playing the Colts to win the AFC South as a dark horse candidate while everyone else is focused on Houston."

Speaking of Steichen, he is arguably the reason Indy finished over .500 last season even though Richardson was sidelined and Jonathan Taylor only played 10 games. The 2023 Colts offense averaged 23.8 PPG, tied for the 10th highest in the NFL, compared to an anemic 17.0 PPG in 2022.

If both Richardson and Taylor are on the field regularly this season -- and rookie Adonai Mitchell can quickly fit into the offensive scheme -- those numbers are sure to rise and translate into wins.

"Not only will the rushing attack have a different look but there will be more of the deep passing attack on display," Cody Manning of the Sporting News said. "Richardson’s arm will bring more out of that area of the passing game. It also helps with JT in the backfield, they can feed off the play-action, and teams will have to decide whether to load the box or not."

Last but not least, there's the schedule.

"Looking ahead to the 2024 season, the Colts have one of the easier strengths of schedule on paper based on their opponents’ 2023 win percentages, which totals .491," USA Today said. "The combined 2023 record of the Colts’ 2024 opponents is 142-147, with nine games incoming against teams who had a winning record and seven games against teams who made the playoffs."

If all of these components gel properly, the Colts are in for an improved NFL season. That should make reaching nine wins very doable, so backing the Over is a good bet ahead of the season.