Praise the Lord, and Pass the A+ Cinemascore

“God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust” (Fathom) and “Am I Racist?” (SDG) won’t register with most mainstream moviegoers, but this weekend they could rank as high as #3 and #4 (in either order), behind “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) and the debuting “Speak No Evil” (Universal) . Also in the mix are Lionsgate’s new “The Killer’s Game” and the 8th weekend of “Deadpool & Wolverine.”

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Of these, guess which two are top candidates for receiving the rare A+ Cinemascore.

There’s a history of lucrative performances for similar films that appeal to conservative faith-based or MAGA-related audiences (which frequently overlap). The progressive side has its analogs, particularly in Michael Moore documentaries, but for the last decade or more nearly all the preach-to-the-choir breakthroughs come from the right wing of the ideological spectrum.

Most fall far short of the grosses for “The Passion of the Christ” (Picturehouse) or “Sound of Freedom” (Angel). With budgets modest to small, and thrifty marketing with the ability to microtarget potential ticket buyers, this has become a vital market. Sony and Lionsgate lead the way for faith-based releases on the studio side, but it’s also a fertile valley for enterprising independents.

The fifth film in the “God’s Not Dead” franchise (the first two grossed over $80 million combined) is from Fathom Events. Best known for its eclectic schedule of event titles (most recently, a very successful $32 million reissue of Laika’s “Coraline”), it’s also a regular distributor of faith-based titles.

“God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust” opens Thursday in what’s anticipated to be an open-ended run. The plot this time involves a minister (David A.R. White) running for Congress against a secular opponent (Ray Wise). Dean Cain, Isaiah Washington, Scott Baio, and Charlene Tilton are also among the cast.

Previews for “Am I Racist?” start Thursday. The first release from Daily Wire, the conservative media site co-founded by Ben Shapiro, it’s a documentary in the Moore mold starring Matt Walsh. (From the official synopsis: “From the white guys who brought you ‘What Is a Woman?’… prepare to be shocked by how far race hustlers go.”) A self-proclaimed theocratic fascist (per his X profile) and far-right provocateur, Walsh goes the Sasha Baron Cohen route by disguising himself as he ridicules DEI and other inclusion policies.

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“Dead” opens in 1,399 theaters, “Racist” in 1,510. The strong odds for high placement in the weekend’s top 10 stems from September playtime and falling grosses for older titles; even $3 million might be enough for the top five. It’s also possible that “Reagan” (A Cinemascore) could make the top five in its third weekend.

Cinemascore stats reflect the depth of commitment to these niche films. Since 2011, 19 of the 59 films to receive a rare A+ Cinemascore (on average, about four a year) are either faith-based or conservative. That includes this year’s “Ordinary Angels,” “Unsung Heroes,” “Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot,” and “The Forge.” Last year, eight films scored A+; the only ones that didn’t target right-wing film fans were concert films from Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, both of whom have their own worshipful fan bases.

Cinemascores have some correlation with long-term performance. Of 18 of the A+ titles, their average multiple (the ratio of a film’s total gross to that of the opening weekend) is an excellent 3.6. That includes four of the five films that opened over $10 million.

These films are outstanding examples of how niche movies — and original dramas — can attract audiences. They include a range of subjects and characters; several feature Black actors in lead roles. They are impervious to reviews. Their success also suggests that what theaters provide — the communal experience of sharing a movie with like-minded people — remains a distinct asset, separate from home platforms.

These audiences are hardly the only ones that are underserved. The lag in Latino representation represents enormous potential. This week’s films provide a roadmap to find similar markets.

On the progressive side, “The Apprentice” (Briarcliffe), backed by elevated festival exposure and favorable reviews, will try to appeal to those on the left and others interested in its retelling of Donald Trump’s mentorship by the notorious Roy Cohn. It opens wide October 11. It will be interesting to see what the capable crew at Briarcliffe, led by veteran Tom Ortenberg, does to make this into an event. The potential is there.