Nintendo 'hedging bets' on Switch 2 release date says video games expert

A video games expert says the release window of 2025 for Metroid Prime 4 may give an indication that Nintendo is "hedging its bets" over when a Nintendo Switch 2 console will launch.

During the Nintendo Direct event in June , when the Japanese video games brand unexpectedly dropped a trailer for Metroid Prime 4 , there was a lot of speculation that this may have given a first glimpse at the successor to the hugely successful Nintendo Switch .

This was debunked by some tech experts but before the event, Nintendo confirmed news of a successor to the Switch would be announced before the end of March 2025.

That does not mean the console itself will release before then though and it has recently been speculated it will come out after then.

George Osborn is the creator of Video Games Industry Memo and the managing director of Half-Space Consulting with 15 years' experience in the industry having also studied at the University of Cambridge.

He thinks Metroid Prime 4 could be the game that crosses over the two consoles and offers a clue to how Nintendo is thinking about the Switch 2.

"You look at Metroid Prime and its release date is 2025, which is a little bit vague, and I think that's because I would not be surprised to see Metroid Prime 4 fulfilling the role of Breath of the Wild that launches a new console but also is available on the previous device too," Osborn said.

"The vagueness around the release date is Nintendo hedging its bets on when a Switch 2 probably launches.

"Never bet against Nintendo doing something interesting with its hardware, I think that's always in there.

"But there's that sense of it's difficult to move on from something that has bucked the trend in terms of console sales as it could sell more devices than PlayStation 2.

"I think Nintendo would be looking at that and thinking 'we don't want to be in a place where we don't replicate that again' but I will say the Switch when it launched was in a world where the Steam Deck didn't exist.

"If the Steam Deck does exist, which it does, and the Asus Rug exists, which it does, these are devices which are landing on Nintendo's territory, especially in terms of how to play well-developed independent games.

"It will be interesting to see how they will adjust to that challenge too."

Osborn said it was a "real surprise" seeing what was announced during Nintendo Direct earlier in the year too.

He said: "It was a real surprise seeing such a strong lineup at Nintendo Direct because almost everything else that's been released this year has been smaller scale releases or re-releases.

"There's a very deliberate strategy behind that; coming towards the end of a console generation, you want to keep costs lower by re-releasing old games where there's an audience like Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door , or you're looking at Princess Peach Showtime and going for something that is new but is basically built on technology that's been used to develop before to give a new experience that's a little bit cheaper.

"It was surprisingly strong but actually when you think about what was announced, it actually continues the trend.

"If you look at the new Zelda title, the big twist on it is that you're playing as Zelda but if you look at the way it's designed, frankly it's basically the same engine as A Link to the Past and it's much easier to reuse an engine and re-contextualise it.

"Nintendo has a classic example of doing this before with Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask landing a couple of years later which was developed in a much shorter period of time but very different, very weird, very engaging because Nintendo wanted to keep costs down.

"They're still trying to get towards those sales targets of around 13m Switch consoles this year and they're going to struggle to do that I think."

Osborn's Video Games Industry Memo is sent out every Thursday and he's writing his debut non-fiction book called Power Play , a look at how video games are changing the world.

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