This historian predicts who'll be president — and usually gets it right. See his 2024 pick

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of the 10 most recent presidential races. And he doesn't think Donald Trump is heading back to the White House.

For the 2024 election, the historian predicted that Kamala Harris will be the next president. Here's a look at his process.

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before receiving the title of "Distinguished Professor" from the American University in Washington , D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.

He routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his election forecasting.

How does Lichtman make his picks for presidential elections?

Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times , that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”

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The keys include whether:

◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.

◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.

◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.

◾ There is a third-party challenger.

◾ The short-term economy is strong.

◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.

◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.

◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.

◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.

◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.

◾ The incumbent is charismatic.

◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.

◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.

Why did Allan Lichtman pick Kamala Harris?

Eight of the keys above are in favor of Harris , while three are in favor of Trump .

When will Trump and Harris debate?

Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will debate at 9 p.m. Tuesday evening.

Watch the debate: Trump vs. Harris presidential debate is Tuesday. How to watch it in Indiana

Contributing: Karissa Waddick

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: This historian predicts who'll be president — and usually gets it right. See his 2024 pick