While all nine of Indiana’s seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are on ballots this November, just one of those races is competitive enough to draw attention from high-profile Republicans who hope to grow the party’s majority in Congress .
House Speaker Mike Johnson visited Gary on Monday to stump for Republican Randy Niemeyer at a campaign event in Indiana's 1st Congressional District in Northwest Indiana. The district is one of only two Democratic-controlled districts in Indiana.
Randy Niemeyer , a member of the Lake County Council , is challenging Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan . The Indiana Libertarian Party also fielded a candidate for the 1st Congressional District this year in 25-year-old Dakotah Miskus , who works in customer service and is from LaPorte County.
Indiana's 1 st District, which covers rust-belt communities like Gary and Hammond just east of the Chicago area, has been represented by a Democrat for more than 90 years, but national Republicans are eyeing Mrvan’s seat, for the second election cycle in a row , as a potential flip opportunity for the party, which currently has a nine-member edge over Democrats in the U.S. House .
Johnson told IndyStar Republicans are “excited” about Niemeyer’s candidacy, calling the Lake County Councilman “an ideal candidate for Congress.” Additionally, the National Republican Congressional Committee this summer named Niemeyer on of 26 “Young Gun” candidates with competitive races to watch in November.
“I think this seat is one that belongs in the Republican column,” Johnson said in a Monday phone call with IndyStar. “It will make a big difference for the whole country, not just for Indiana, because if we have a larger majority, we can really move that policy agenda through the Congress.”
From 2022: The 1st District could be competitive, Republicans have to get through state primary first
But Mrvan survived a tough reelection campaign in 2022 in which national attention was also focused on his then-Republican opponent Jennifer-Ruth Green. The Democratic Congressman won that race by 5 percentage points two years ago.
Mrvan’s campaign did not respond to questions from IndyStar on Monday, but Indiana Democratic Party Spokesman Sam Barloga said in an email that Mrvan reflects the values of residents in Northwest Indiana who will reelect him in November.
“Randy Niemeyer wants to bring Mike Johnson’s extreme politics of national abortion bans and political gridlock to Northwest Indiana. It’s no wonder Niemeyer wants to join a Republican majority in Congress that is one of the least effective in American history,” Barloga said. “The Region knows hard work and is home to thousands of union members who keep our factories and farms open. They want a member of Congress who works as hard as they do, and that’s who they have in Frank Mrvan.”
Republican hurdles ahead
Republicans will have to overcome Mrvan’s fundraising lead in addition to Northwest Indiana’s long history of voting for Democrats for the 1st District seat.
As of June 30, Mrvan had an edge over Niemeyer in cash on hand with nearly $1.5 million compared to Niemeyer's $446,000 , federal campaign finance records show.
National political analysts and election predictors, such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, labeled Mrvan’s 2022 contest against Green a tossup, but don’t see the same potential for Republicans in 2024.
In late July , managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote that Sabato’s is categorizing the 1 st District as “leans Democratic” and even considered upgrading the seat to “likely Democratic.” But Kondik said Indiana’s 1 st District is among “working-class” areas around the country that “could easily imagine Trump doing better in 2024 than he did in 2020.”
The election is Nov. 5.
Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at brittany.carloni@indystar.com or 317-779-4468. Follow her on Twitter/X @CarloniBrittany .
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: House Speaker Mike Johnson visited Indiana. Here's which seat he thinks the GOP can flip.
Local News
