INDIANAPOLIS — The task is not getting any easier.
A Colts team that picked up its first win of the season over Chicago last week now awaits the arrival of a Pittsburgh team that has ridden its defense and the unexpected efficiency of Justin Fields to an undefeated start.
Indianapolis will try to hand Pittsburgh its first blemish of 2024 when the Colts host the Steelers at 1 p.m. Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium in a game televised by WTTV-4.
1. The Indianapolis offense is a modern-day anomaly with Anthony Richardson at the helm. The Colts are inefficient but explosive, ranking 17th in the NFL in yards per game (315.7) but third in yards per play (6.3), a mark that trails only Baltimore and Green Bay. Pittsburgh’s defense has been excellent in just about every area through the first three games, ranking first in the NFL in yards (229.7 per game), points (8.7), third-down conversions (21.9%) and red-zone conversions (16.7%), but as Indianapolis proved last week, the Colts are capable of striking gold on just about any play, even when the offense is struggling overall.
2. Richardson’s lack of accuracy is holding back the Indianapolis offense. The second-year starting quarterback is completing just 49.3% of his passes, and now faces a Pittsburgh secondary that is allowing opponents to complete 61.7%, good for seventh-best in the NFL, putting the Steelers in company with all three of the Colts’ opponents to date: the Texans (58.3, 3rd), Bears (59.1, 5th) and Packers (61.8, tied for 8th).
3. Richardson’s decision-making has been bad to start this season, tossing an NFL-worst six interceptions through the first five games on a combination of overthrows and ill-advised decisions. If he puts the ball in danger again, the Steelers will take advantage; Pittsburgh already has four interceptions.
Key matchup: Colts offensive line vs. Steelers pass rush
4. The Indianapolis offensive line has allowed just four sacks, tied for fourth-best in the NFL through three games. Pittsburgh’s ferocious pass rush will test the Colts. Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt already has three sacks and seven quarterback hits, and he’ll likely line up mostly on the left side, matching him against Indianapolis right tackle Braden Smith , who wasn’t available when the two teams met last year.
5. Pittsburgh defensive tackle Cameron Heyward (one sack, four quarterback hits) will be a stiff test for a Colts interior that could be missing center Ryan Kelly, who missed the final two days of practice this week due to a neck injury. If Kelly is out, the Colts will have to rely on excellent guard tandem Quenton Nelson and Will Fries to help out Danny Pinter, Kelly's presumed backup.
6. Watt’s primary running mate, Alex Highsmith, is not expected to play due to injury, but second-year outside linebacker Nick Herbig filled in admirably against the Chargers, recording two sacks. If Herbig lines up primarily on the blind side, he’ll find himself in a battle with another ascending young player, Indianapolis left tackle Bernhard Raimann.
7. The Colts coaching staff is likely going to have to be creative to keep getting Alec Pierce free downfield. Pierce is averaging an NFL-best 25 yards per catch on nine receptions this season, including three catches of 40 yards or more, and that kind of production should draw extra attention from a Steelers secondary that has allowed just one throw of 40-plus yards this season.
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8. Indianapolis wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. (11 catches, 88 yards) and Josh Downs (three catches, 22 yards) have been a little inconsistent early in the season, hampered by injuries and Richardson’s struggles. If the Colts passing game is going to get more efficient, it is likely the ball will primarily go through those two players, though, because of their proficiency on underneath routes, and the attention teams will likely pay to Pierce could open opportunities downfield.
9. Pittsburgh’s defense has been incredible against the run, ranked second in the NFL in both yards (71.3) and yards per carry (3.5), but a surging Jonathan Taylor (251 yards, 5.4 yards per carry) presents a different kind of test after back-to-back 100-yard games. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said it himself on Tuesday, praising not only Taylor but the Colts’ ability to draw a defense’s attention to Richardson, who is averaging 6.5 yards per carry of his own.
10. Taylor’s hands are inconsistent, but Indianapolis should continue to look for ways to get him the ball in the passing game; the Colts running back is averaging 19 yards per catch on three receptions, and a screen or two to Taylor would go a long way toward taking some teeth out of the Pittsburgh pass rush.
11. Rookie returner Anthony Gould has made some questionable decisions in the first three games, but if he picks his spots, Gould could have a chance for a nice return on Sunday. Pittsburgh is allowing opponents to average 8.8 yards per punt return so far, 16th in the NFL.
What to know about the Steelers offense
12. The Steelers might be undefeated, but the offense has been far from dominant. The Steelers rank 28th in yards per play (4.59), 28th in yards per carry (3.63) and 21st in yards per dropback (6.33), as well as just 24th in scoring, averaging 17 points per game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 20 points in any game yet.
13. A surprising Fields has been more efficient than explosive so far. Fields is completing 73.3% of his passes but averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt, and Pittsburgh has just six completions of 20 yards or more, a mark that is tied for 24th in the NFL. Indianapolis slot cornerback Kenny Moore II is unavailable, though, after suffering a hip injury late in Sunday’s win over the Bears, and Fields might be more likely to push the ball down the field against a young, inexperienced group of Colts cornerbacks.
14. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over only once this season, an interception from Fields. Indianapolis flipped the script last week by forcing three turnovers, led by two picks from Jaylon Jones , and the Colts need to get the Steelers to cough up the ball a couple of times this week to mess with Pittsburgh’s formula for winning.
15. Bears tight end Cole Kmet caught 10 passes against the Colts last week, and Pittsburgh has its own talented tight end, Pat Freiermuth, who has 12 catches for 99 yards and can take advantage of the middle of the Indianapolis defense. Indianapolis safeties Julian Blackmon and Nick Cross must keep Freiermuth from giving Fields a bunch of easy targets over the middle.
16. George Pickens is Pittsburgh’s best big-play threat on the outside. Pickens has 13 catches for 171 yards in an uneven season, but he’s explosive enough to get deep at almost any time.
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17. Pittsburgh’s running game has been more persistent than overpowering this season. The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in rushing at 130.7 yards per game, but they’ve averaged just 3.63 yards per carry (28th), and gadget back Cordarrelle Patterson is the only Steeler averaging more than four yards per carry.
18. Pittsburgh’s lead back, Najee Harris, had his arm in a sling after last week’s win over the Chargers, but he will be good to go. Harris is a grinder, averaging 3.8 yards per carry so far this season, but Pittsburgh will surely be trying to see if the Colts defense has fixed its run-game woes or simply got lucky against a Bears running game that has been the NFL’s second-worst this season. Indianapolis will not have starting defensive end Kwity Paye , who suffered a quadriceps injury against the Bears, and could be more vulnerable on the edges without Paye in the lineup.
19. Harris’ running mate, Jaylen Warren, could miss the game due to a knee injury suffered last week. If Warren cannot go, the Steelers can lean on Patterson against a Colts defense that was much improved against Chicago, led by an aggressive Zaire Franklin at middle linebacker.
20. Pittsburgh’s offensive style is uniquely suited to take advantage of a Colts defense that has struggled to get off the field this season. Indianapolis has faced a whopping 239 snaps this season, partly because of the offense’s inefficiency and partly because the Colts have allowed opponents to convert 50% of their third downs, leaving the defense on the field. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks seventh in the NFL in third-down conversions this season at 43.2%, and the Steelers play the sort of ball-control, keep-away offense that could keep Indianapolis on the field a long time.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 20 things to watch as Colts try to upset undefeated Steelers
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