NOAA's 2024-25 winter forecast is here, and Indiana is looking wet

Indiana's winter could be milder and wetter this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . Its Climate Prediction Center updated the winter outlook report last month for January, February, and March of 2025.

The U.S. winter outlook from NOAA shows La Niña conditions are strongly expected. The U.S. has a 60% chance of La Niña emerging from now until November and persisting from January through March 2025.

Here's what that means for Hoosiers living in Indiana.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which the ocean's seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service . It occurs normally every 3-5 years and can have a significant impact on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season .

What's the NOAA forecast for Indiana this winter?

Indiana is forecast to experience above-normal precipitation. Areas as far south as Evansville and stretching as far north as Fort Wayne could see higher chances of precipitation at 50–60% above average. South Bend and Gary along Indiana's northern edge could have a 40–50% greater chance of precipitation this winter.

Records kept by NWS show the average total rainfall from January through March in Indianapolis equaled 9.24 inches.

How cold will Indiana get this winter? Here's what NOAA says...

Indiana is leaning toward above average temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a seasonal outlook map issued by NOAA. That includes much of the southern and eastern half of the country as well.

The average daily high in Indianapolis, according to NWS , is 36 in January; 41 in February; and 52 in March. Lows during those three months average in the low 20s to low 30s

Warmer than normal temperatures are favored throughout the U.S., according to NWS, in part because of the lowered seawater temperatures of La Niña . The map is valid from January to March 2025.

What do the Farmers' almanacs predict for winter in the Midwest?

That flies contrary to predictions by the Old Farmer's Almanac , which forecasted the Hoosier state would have snowy, cold conditions in the southern half of the state with cold, drier weather in northern Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Farmer's Almanac predicts the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a "big freeze" in January with "very, very cold conditions" expected.

Hoosiers might want to keep in mind the almanacs' long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer's Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

More forecasts: Old Farmer's Almanac says to keep your flip-flops out for fall. Unless you live in Indiana

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com . Follow him on Twitter at JTuftsReports .

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: NOAA's 2024-25 winter forecast is here, and Indiana is looking wet