5 things to watch as Colts return home to take on injury-riddled Dolphins

INDIANAPOLIS — Banged-up and bruised, the Colts have been far from perfect, but they have found a way to put themselves in the playoff mix heading into the toughest portion of their schedule.

But they need a win this week to stay there.

Indianapolis gets to come back home on Sunday, playing at Lucas Oil for the only time in a five-game stretch, and the Colts will be taking on a Dolphins team that has looked like a shell of itself without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Indianapolis (3-3) gets back the services of its own starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, after a two-game absence, adding intrigue to a 1 p.m. kickoff (WXIN-59) against Miami (2-3).

Anthony Richardson injury update: Colts QB Anthony Richardson will start vs Dolphins barring setback per Shane Steichen

1. Richardson will be making his return against a Miami defense with misleading traditional statistics. The Dolphins rank fifth in the NFL in yards allowed (285.4 per game), third in passing yards (159.6) and first in third-down conversions (25.45), but Miami is rated just 24th in the NFL in defensive DVOA, an advanced statistic that measures a team’s overall success rate, taking into account strength of schedule, time of game and other factors. Miami’s defense might have solid numbers against the pass, but the Dolphins have just nine sacks and three interceptions. Miami cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller remain a formidable pair, but the Dolphins will not have edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips against a Colts offensive line that ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks allowed per dropback.

Will Anthony Richardson play in Week 7?

2. Richardson has missed the last two weeks, but he has to be more efficient and accurate than he was before going down with a hip injury against Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Richardson has completed just 50.6% of his passes so far, thrown six interceptions and largely been inconsistent as a thrower, but his presence could pay big dividends if he can make more of the short throws. Richardson has been boom-or-bust this season, but the boom has been loud; the Colts starter is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, an impressive figure that would tie him for fourth in the NFL if he had enough snaps to qualify. Veteran backup Joe Flacco has been more efficient than Richardson, but there were long stretches in all three of his performances where the offense bogged down under the weight of short completions. Flacco is averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, and even with Michael Pittman Jr. playing through a painful back injury, Indianapolis has the receiving talent on hand to be more explosive than that.

3. Richardson’s presence should also open up the running game, even though Jonathan Taylor will not return from a high ankle sprain. Indianapolis has been cautious with Richardson, holding the young quarterback out of the lineup in part because of concerns that he couldn’t play his normal style of football . When Richardson is fully healthy, his legs are a weapon that defenses have to stop; Richardson is averaging 6.7 yards on 21 carries this season. When defenses have to pay attention to Richardson, there are more holes available for the running backs, a benefit for Taylor and a necessity for his backups, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. Without Richardson around to draw the defense’s attention, Sermon has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry this season, and although Goodson is averaging 5.9, he is more of a big-play specialist than an every-down back. The Colts need to run the ball on Sunday; Miami’s defense has struggled against the run, giving up 4.69 yards per carry (23rd in the NFL) and 125.8 yards per game (18th).

Expect a different Miami offense

4. Miami’s offensive blueprint on Sunday is likely going to look like the one Tennessee nearly pulled off last week. Forced to start Snoop Huntley at quarterback while Tagovailoa continues to recover from the concussion he suffered early this season, the Dolphins have not been explosive in the passing game, averaging a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt without Tagovailoa in the lineup. In Tagovailoa’s absence, teams have stacked the line of scrimmage against Miami’s questionable offensive line, making it difficult for the running game to get going. The Dolphins rank just 26th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.95), an unthinkable number for a Mike McDaniels offense after Miami led the league in yards per carry a season ago. Based on the way the Indianapolis defense has played this season, though, McDaniels likely plans to unleash his trio of running backs — De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright — again after beating New England into submission with 41 carries two weeks ago. Indianapolis ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed this season (155.2), and although the Colts have bounced back somewhat from the ugliness of the first two weeks, Indianapolis still allowed Tennessee to rush for 146 yards Sunday despite the Titans signaling they didn’t want to put the ball in their quarterback’s hands at all. McDaniel has a much more creative rushing attack than Tennessee’s; Indianapolis linebackers Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed have to be on top of their games on Sunday.

5. Miami still has the weapons outside to torch the Indianapolis secondary through the air. Tyreek Hill (23 catches, 286 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (21 catches, 258 yards) are as dangerous as they’ve ever been, speedy players who will be tough matchups for Colts cornerbacks Jaylon Jones, Kenny Moore II and Samuel Womack III. The problem is getting the ball in their hands; Huntley has averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt while completing 60.4% of his passes since taking over the starting job, and the Dolphins offensive line has allowed 16 sacks overall. For the second consecutive week, the Colts defense needs to force its opponent into obvious passing situations; Indianapolis does not have a sack in nine quarters, but Miami does not have the quarterback play to fully take advantage of a banged-up Colts defense.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 5 things to watch as Colts return home to take on injury-riddled Dolphins