Levada's consumer sentiment index has been moving steadily upward since April 2022, barely two months after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia's economy has appeared resilient due to growth generated by driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies.
Russia's booming economy has boosted consumer spending, in particular on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services, according to a Financial Times analysis of official data last month.
According to the FT, consumption per capita in Russia increased by more than 20% from 2021 to 2023. In particular, spending on travel surged more than 90% thanks to a boost from domestic tourism.
Last year, Russia's imports of cognac and sparkling wine surged 18% and 80% from 2019, respectively, according to an estimate from the Economist media outlet.
Broadly, "consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at the fintech Conotoxia, wrote in a note last month.
Economic growth could halve in the second half of 2024
The good times are unlikely to last.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect growth to slow to about 2% over the second half of the year.
The current boom is "a last growth spurt before Russia's economy starts to markedly cool," said Alex Isakov, an economist covering Russia at Bloomberg Economics.
Russia's central bank recently hiked rates to 18% in an attempt to cool inflation as the economy sees "considerable" overheating.
Such high rates mean consumer spending, too, could cool.
"'Civilian' industries are unlikely to be in a good place to serve as a substitute driver for growth as more consumers face the reality of borrowing at 20% rates or above," said Isakov.
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