Hollywood's new rulebook: no risky shows

• Hollywood production is resuming post-strike but faces increased risk aversion.
• Media companies are prioritizing broad-appeal, ongoing dramas and reboots over original titles.
• Even A-listers struggle to sell projects, though indie films may benefit from current conditions.

Hollywood is getting back to work after the twin labor strikes shut down most of production last year — but it's harder to get a show made than it's been in anyone's recent memory.

To hear agents, lawyers, and producers tell it, the Hollywood they're going back to is more risk-averse than ever.

To some extent, this is a continuation of what Netflix and its ilk have prioritized for a while : broadcast-network-style shows that will grab big and ongoing viewership (and ads to go with them). Think of the "Suits LA" spinoff of the USA Networks show that was popularized by Netflix, and shows with big stars attached to them.

Tracking company ProdPro found the total number of productions filming in the US is up over 2023, when the strike depressed production, but declined 37% in the first half of 2024 versus the same period in 2022.

With spending tighter than ever as media companies race to make streaming profitable, the word going around is "undeniable."

"What's selling is more blue-sky stuff that can be watched anywhere. You don't have to watch season 1 to watch season 2," said one agent, who, like some others in this story, asked for anonymity when discussing private talks. "We're seeing less limited [series], less [period pieces] that are hard to justify. Ongoing dramas are definitely in demand; stuff that will appeal to a broad audience."

Even A-listers don't guarantee success anymore. Agents talk of projects with big-name stars that aren't selling.

A second agent described how stars are learning to humble themselves in new ways, by showing up in pitches and ingratiating themselves to Warner Bros. Discovery chief David Zaslav and Amazon MGM Studios head Jennifer Salke.

"They'll text Zaslav, Salke, and that generates some really good results," the agent said. "Others are a little too precious and they don't get the same result."

Get ready for more reboots and crime dramas

So, what is selling?

There are shows with big names and bankable showrunners, like the book adaption "Margo's Got Money Troubles" starring Elle Fanning and Nicole Kidman and from David E. Kelley ("Big Little Lies," "Nine Perfect Strangers"), which Apple snapped up.

"David E. Kelley is hotter now than he's ever been because they know he's going to deliver," the first agent said.

In a world of tightened budgets, streamers want a sure thing.

Another reliable genre the streamers are leaning on is crime thrillers, like the highly sought "MIA" from "Ozark" cocreator Bill Dubuque that went to Comcast's Peacock, and the remake of "Presumed Innocent" starring Jake Gyllenhaal on Apple TV+, as well as shows based on popular books like Nicole Kidman-starring "The Perfect Couple" on Netflix.

Media companies also want laugh-out-loud comedies and reboots that come with built-in audiences, believing people want to be cheered up after the pandemic and heading into a tense election season. (There are exceptions, like hardcore "Fallout" on Prime Video, based on a popular video game of the same name, and Hulu's buzzy dark comedy "The Bear.") Disney, in particular, is making fewer titles and leaning on sequels over originals after a string of box-office flops.

Even those aren't guaranteed to have a buyer, though. A third agent said even CBS, known for reboots and revivals like "Matlock," debuting later this month starring Kathy Bates, is rolling its eyes at some of them.

"They almost have reboot fatigue," the third agent said.

Even big stars are getting slighted

There's an overall feeling that Hollywood has become too risk-averse. Industry insiders think that's bad for business — and necessitates awkward conversations with stars not used to getting rebuffed.

"It's hard for these artists," the third agent said. "There's a lot of frustration."

Some sellers remember the good old days when Netflix would throw big money at creators as it tried to build a content library. These days, one entertainment lawyer said, Netflix is often funding a certain amount of development before it commits. Producers don't see that money until the show is sold, so they have to have multiple pitches going in case one doesn't work out, the lawyer said.

Some observers also think the current conditions will actually be good for independent films made outside the traditional Hollywood studios. That's thanks to an uptick in film financing, the recent success of indie films at the box office, and momentum by indie players like Miramax, which just got a new CEO in Jonathan Glickman, and Neon, which has a new deal to back mid-budget films.

But in the meantime, the dearth of shows being ordered will take its toll on Hollywood.

"There's just some people who are not going to be able to survive this dark period," a second lawyer said.