Why 49ers should win Super Bowl, in battle of magic vs. logic

It doesn’t feel like five years since the 49ers and Chiefs faced off in the Super Bowl. Maybe that’s the blur of the pandemic years, or the fact that so many of the same pieces have shepherded these teams back to a rematch.

But what is clear now, is that the 49ers are the better team, with a better quarterback, and better offense.

Still, there’s logic, and then there’s Patrick Mahomes… which brings us to Sunday’s defining question: which brand of magic do you believe in?

What do you believe in?

It’s Purdy’s unassuming magicianry (a made-up word) versus the inevitable wizardry of Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

Proselytizing about the spectral forces involved in this game is the only way to properly assess the Chiefs.

“[Mahomes is] a magician back there, man,” Chase Young told me this week. “Certain things can’t be explained.”

Their dark magic is the logical explanation for the fact that they should not be here. When you watch them this season, you do not see a great team. But, they evolved their offense to work with what they have, and with the most talented quarterback of all time and a tight end with a telepathic connection, they’re never really a fluke.

The reality is that their defense is impressive schematically, and they’re led by veteran mastermind Steve Spagnuolo, who directs two elite corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, lynchpin defensive tackle Chris Jones, along with some malleable, quick linebackers and safeties.

On paper, you wouldn’t peg it as a top-five unit, but it has been elite and is clearly the Chiefs’ best group. Their offense, though?

*whispers* The Chiefs’ offense is not impressive, but the 49ers’ key might be Chase Young

Their offense is ugly.

It turned a corner in the playoffs after lackluster regular season performances from Mahomes and Kelce, because the typical attack from the Chiefs was no longer available. They’ve become reliant on screens and checkdowns to compensate for their woefully outmoded personnel on offense.

Kansas City has three players who can impact the game with the ball in their hands besides Mahomes. There’s Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco.

Their receiving group, even with Rice, an excellent rookie, is bottom 10 in the league.

Their offensive line is absolutely stacked in the middle, with Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, who is expected to be out with a pectoral injury, will be replaced by solid backup Nick Allegretti.

Their tackles, though?

To put it lightly, Donovan Smith is a shell of his former self, and Jawaan Taylor is well below average. Despite that, those two are largely left on an island, as Kansas City, even while running an abundance of 13 and 12 personnel (three and two tight ends), does not use their tight ends to chip all that often.

The only way Kansas City can get away with not chipping or double-teaming Nick Bosa is by holding, which they will do a lot of, and get away with a lot of. Bosa said it himself when asked about those tackles.

“They hold a lot,” he said, as reporters chuckled and he remained stone-faced.

That was a *let me put this on the radar* attempt by Bosa, who was infamously held on that 3rd-and-15 “WASP” play to Tyreek Hill that changed the last Super Bowl. He knows he’ll be held again Sunday and he knows it will go uncalled more often than not.

This isn’t a crusade specifically for Bosa or the 49ers.

When you watch Kansas City against Baltimore two weeks ago, the amount of holding Smith and Taylor get away with is comical. You can speculate on why holding is or isn’t called, though it should be noted that “rip” moves are an exception which negate holding. See: rules.

Those games were against worst pass-rushers than what the 49ers have. The Dolphins’ edges were decimated by injuries. The Bills rely on Von Miller who’s a year removed from ACL surgery at age 34, and Baltimore was mostly running Kyle Van Noy and Jadeveon Clowney.

Now, Chase Young has been extremely inconsistent. The 49ers made no secrets about their displeasure in his lack of effort on at least one play in the NFC Championship. Steve Wilks didn’t single that play out specifically, but said of a few effort-devoid plays, “quite honestly, it was embarrassing.”

Young has admitted his lack of effort on that play. He turned it on in the second half and will almost certainly be getting plenty of one-on-ones against a sub-par tackle.

But that image of him not going full speed lingers.

As covered earlier this week , assistant defensive line coach Darry Tapp told me that Young is “very aware that that was not one of his best plays,” and while it may have just been one play, “...that’s stuck in everybody’s mind about that play, and rightfully so.”

Tapp said it was out of character, and that Young understands that he can’t allow those plays to be put on tape. If he does, he’ll continue to be viewed as a player who does not give full effort.

To get the most out of Young, and most players, Tapp said coaches have to show that they care at a personal level. He believes Young is “ready to go attack this game.”

Young, for his part, seems bought in and aggrieved by that play.

“Like you said, it was one play,” Young told me. “I feel like it's hard to base a guy, who he is, on one play. I practice hard. I try to be a great teammate. I try to just be a good person. I know that one day I can be one of the best. Tapp believes that too. So they expect greatness from me.”

If the Chiefs end up sliding protections in the direction of Bosa, Young will get one-on-ones.

I asked Young about the Chiefs’ lack of chips, and his eyes got wide, and he craned his neck to the left. Was that an inaccurate assessment?

“No, it’s just —they know who they’re playing against,” Young told me.

In other words, good luck letting Nick Bosa get unabated one-on-ones against sub-par tackles

“Definitely, if they play it straight up, I mean, I feel like I like my chances with any tackle,” Young said. “But I'm going to get blocked in games, it's going to happen. Really, the only thing you can do is just fight your ass off and just try to get there as hard as you can.”

That is the key here for San Francisco. Young needs to get home.

Even if you don’t believe the confidence coming from him and Tapp, one would hope that the chance to win a Super Bowl and play his way into a monstrous free agent contract his offseason would be enough incentive for Young to leave everything on the field. John Lynch and Wilks were also exceedingly confident those plays wouldn’t show up again.

San Francisco’s key against Kansas City’s pass game starts up front, but in order to get those opportunities, they need to stop the foundation of this Chiefs’ offense.

Dink-and-dunk and a madman runner

Kansas City is going to look to attack the 49ers’ edges in the screen game, where there have been vulnerabilities all season long. That offense seemed to come to the realization that it could not do what it’s always done. They’ve become conservative, taking checkdowns and funneling those screens with increasing regularity.

They’ll also try and pound the rock with Pacheco up the middle on power runs, which, as mentioned, is the strength of their offensive line and the 49ers’ most glaring defense weakness.

They’ll test the 49ers on crack tosses, too, where the defensive end gets blocked down and it’s on secondary players to make tackles on the edge.

If the 49ers can bottle up Pacheco, the Chiefs offense becomes Mahomes and Kelce freelancing.

They’re going to get theirs. Mahomes will absolutely pull off some mind-boggling plays where it looks like he’s running around with weights around his ankles, but somehow be fast enough to run for a first down or buy enough time to throw a cross-body dime to Kelce.

49ers fans should be prepared for maximum anxiety while watching Mahomes complete plays that have zero business being executed. He is especially dangerous as a scrambler when the Chiefs go to empty. It puts a burden on coverage, making it difficult to keep a spy on Mahomes. If the edge rushers lose contain, he will scramble for a first down.

But from the 49ers’ perspective, it’s about shutting down Pacheco, having a plan for him, Rice and Kelce on screens, and getting to Mahomes with four. Mahomes dices up blitzes that don’t get home immediately.

If they limit Pacheco and the screen game, and the Chiefs’ offense becomes solely off-schedule, that will feel like a win for the 49ers.

San Francisco should still seek to mug their linebackers and disguise blitzes and coverages (the Ravens were ingenious at walking multiple players to the line, and showing fake overloads to one side, or dropping linemen into coverage to hide where pressure would come from and get the Chiefs to slide protection in the wrong direction).

Some stunts with Javon Hargrave clearing out two linemen would be ideal. Hargrave, who’s been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury, said this week he feels like he’s gotten much of his burst back with the extra week.

The 49ers offense just needs to trust what it does

On the other side, things are interesting.

Brock Purdy’s superpower has been his processing. His ability to diagnose coverages and progress rapidly through his reads, then deliver the ball with anticipation is what has made him so effective.

He struggled in that aspect the last two games, at least early. He cannot afford to give the Chiefs gimmes, of which some were dropped in the playoffs. Kansas City will present unique looks that he’ll have to diagnose in a moment’s notice.

That’s largely about Spagnuolo. The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator employs a variety of linebackers and safeties and moves them around the field in a way that’s difficult to predict. He made it very tough on Tua Tagavailoa and the Dolphins, who are in a similar offense to San Francisco.

That game was, however, in poor conditions, and I’m not at all a believer in Tagavailoa.

Regardless, the Chiefs will want to create looks that indicate the middle of the field will be open when it’s not. Purdy needs to be detailed in tracking post-snap rotations of safeties and linebackers.

It also bears mentioning that the Chiefs haven’t seen a team with the 49ers’ weaponry. Miami had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Bills had Stefon Diggs and a couple solid tight ends (Khalil Shakir is not being erased but was hurt in that game). The Ravens had Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman.

That Ravens group isn’t as good as what the 49ers have in Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey (not to mention Jauan Jennings and Kyle Juszczyk). But that group gave Lamar Jackson plenty of opportunities. He just didn’t take them.

It was a game that made Jackson MVP voters like me embarrassed of their vote. He had checkdowns open, stared at them, then didn’t take them. He’d see zero blitzes and not take deep shots to any of his three receivers in one-on-ones. He patted the ball when he didn’t have to, and missed screens with scuds, throwing at unnecessary sidearm angles.

The performance was maddening. Sneed and McDuffie were great, but there were still plenty of shots for Jackson to take. He didn’t. Even the lone touchdown to Flowers came from him making an initially bad decision, then turning it into excellent off-schedule playmaking.

That playmaking element will be crucial for Purdy.

Kansas City used spies on Jackson when possible, but it’s hard to imagine they’d do the same to Purdy. If Purdy scrambles early, and challenges Kansas City’s defensive rules, the whole thing could come crumbling down. On the flip side, Purdy has a tendency to stop trusting his reads when he doesn’t feel like he can trust his offensive line, and if he bails too quickly, he can miss some opportunities that are there.

The more likely scenario is that Purdy tries to avoid scrambling in the first half and go through his reads as intended, then scrambles more as the game progresses.

With the 49ers’ weaponry, even against great coverage, there will be openings, especially in the run game.
Kansas City has a terrible rush defense. They are 28th in the NFL in expected points added per play, while the 49ers’ rushing attack is first in EPA per rush.

Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are going to be a nightmare on the ground, and while Spagnuolo can create disadvantageous looks, it won’t matter if the 49ers gash the Chiefs on the ground and dictate their looks with pre-snap motion… and talent.

It should also be noted that the 49ers are 12-0 when Samuel has 60-plus all-purpose yards. In a game like this, that feels like a decent bet.

Final prediction

But at the end of the day, this thing comes down to forces beyond logical articulation. The Chiefs offense is ugly, but it’s got the dark magic duo of Mahomes and Kelce who work together to make people question their faith in whatever it is they believe in.

On the other side, Purdy hasn’t played his best, but has managed to pull rabbits out of hats which do not exist. They were comebacks the 49ers have been accused of never being able to pull off. Now we know they can, especially in the biggest moments. He also has an elite run game against a bottom-tier rush defense.

So, which brand of quarterbacking absurdity do you believe in? Can Purdy be to Mahomes what Eli Manning was to Tom Brady? Or will this whole thing come crashing down because the 49ers are facing the greatest quarterback (talent-wise, not yet accolade wise) of all time?

It’s the best team versus the best quarterback, again. But this time, there’s no Tyreek Hill and the 49ers have replaced Jimmy Garoppolo with Purdy, Raheem Mostert with McCaffrey, Emmanuel Sanders with Brandon Aiyuk, DeForest Buckner with Javon Hargrave, and Dee Ford with Chase Young.

On the net, the 49ers have a major advantage. But will this come down to logic, or will it come down to Mahomes?

My prediction: 49ers 34 – Chiefs 24