Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, answers questions at a Univision town hall on Oct. 10, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Felipe Cuevas/TelevisaUnivision)
Let’s take a look at three numbers, all of them incontestable facts from the Federal Election Commission.
570,323 . 427,005 . 440,726 .
Those are the number of voters in Kansas who cast ballots for Joe Biden in 2020, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012. They accounted for 41.6%, 36.1% and 38% of the votes cast in the contest for each of those years.
Taken as a group, the numbers suggest that Kamala Harris will receive a half-million votes in the Kansas presidential election next month, give or take. She could even improve on Biden’s numbers and earn more than 600,000.
Does she have a shot to take Kansas? (I’ve been asked that question more than once in Kansas Reflector town halls.)
Almost certainly not.
I could easily see her vote share exceeding these recent records, given grassroots enthusiasm in the state. If Democrats had decided to invest in the presidential race here, I suspect you could push her total higher by a point or two. That being said, national political parties don’t spend millions in a state to lose 54-46.
The winner-takes-all Electoral College system makes this irrelevant anyway. However many votes Harris wins in Kansas, if she receives one less than Donald Trump, he will receive all six of our state’s electoral votes. Done and dusted.
I’m not here to argue for a national popular vote. You could reform the presidential election system multiple ways, such as allocating electoral votes by congressional district. Maine and Nebraska have done so without much problem, although Republicans in the latter state made noises about changing the system this year.
Regardless, who believes that throwing away a half-million votes serves the popular welfare or otherwise strengthens our state?
I’ll tell you who wouldn’t stand for it in a million years: Kansas Republicans.
Imagine what would happen if this became a battleground state. Imagine the prospect that hundreds of thousands of precious GOP ballots might be incinerated in the flames of Electoral College machinery. They would instantly call for its abolition or reform. Because the system gives their party an edge at present, though, conservatives claim to hold the college dear as an everlasting and eternal part of our government.
If holding onto an antidemocratic relic makes sense for one party in some situations and for the other party in other situations, perhaps that relic has outlived its usefulness.
A strong majority of Americans — 63% — supports ending the system. So does Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz , before the Harris campaign reeled him back in (they don’t want to get crossways with residents in the seven states who will decide this thing, after all).
“I think all of us know the Electoral College needs to go,” Walz said at a fundraiser this month. “We need, we need national popular vote, but that’s not the world we live in. So we need to win Beaver County, Pennsylvania. We need to be able to go into York, Pennsylvania, win. We need to be in western Wisconsin and win. We need to be in Reno, Nevada, and win.”
I’ll add a bipartisan note. California Republicans shouldn’t see their 6 million votes for Trump tossed in the trash bin either.
Let’s mosey on back to those half-million Kansas voters.
Republican leaders in the Kansas Legislature have made no secret of their plans for the upcoming session. They want to eliminate the corporate income tax and seize control of the budget process from Gov. Laura Kelly. They have shown no signs of reconsidering opposition to Medicaid expansion or cannabis legalization.
They have proudly set themselves as barriers to progress and the will of their fellow Kansans.
Here’s the catch. If voters want to make different decisions at the state and local level, they can. No Electoral College stands between the will of voters and their local legislators. Everyday folks can take the Sunflower State in whatever direction they want.
But that requires a different approach than voting in a presidential election. You won’t find cable channels devoted to telling you about the people and personalities in Topeka. You won’t find hundreds of websites overflowing with stories and commentary about local issues that matter to you. Learning about state politics takes time and effort .
Yet no institutional barrier prevents your voice from being heard.
I have written about this opportunity from my first column for Kansas Reflector onward, and you can rest assured I’m going to keep writing about it. Folks need to know. Kansans can enjoy a better, more representative future.
But they have to seize the opportunity to make that choice. Regardless of who wins the presidency in 19 short days.
Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here .
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