AST Weather Blog: Francine likely to bring rain and wind to parts of Arkansas into late-week

Tropical Storm Francine officially formed in the western Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning. It is currently moving northeast towards Texas but is expected to turn further northeast by Tuesday as it strengthens into a hurricane, targeting the Louisiana coastline.

Landfall is anticipated over southern Louisiana, between Lake Charles and Morgan City, as a Category 1 or possibly a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 85 to 100 mph.

After landfall, Francine will continue moving northeast and weaken as it progresses inland. Forecast models indicate that the storm’s center will track north along the Mississippi River. This path will bring rain and wind to Arkansas, but it does not significantly increase the risk of tornadoes in eastern Arkansas.

In contrast to the July storm, Beryl, which placed Arkansas on the “dirty side” of the storm with a higher tornado risk–Francine’s trajectory suggests that Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama will face a greater tornado threat.

The peak of impacts in eastern Arkansas are expected on Thursday, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds. Rainfall could reach between 3 and 7 inches in some areas, which, along with wind, may cause sporadic power outages.

Winds are likely to range from 20 to 30 mph, with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph. Conditions should improve by Friday and continue to clear over the weekend.

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