California projected to see 26% less registered nurses by 2036: report

SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — Four years after the COVID-19 pandemic, the health care industry continues grappling with the effects, which include staffing shortages, employee burnout and rising medical costs.

Nationwide, labor unions representing health care workers have been pushing for change, and those in San Diego County are no exception.

In recent weeks, workers at Sharp HealthCare and Rady Children’s picketed outside their respective employers’ to voice their needs and concerns.

In the most recent development, Rady Children’s Hospital and nurses with UNOCH/Teamsters Local 1699 agreed on a new three-year contract Thursday , avoiding a second strike.

The news came after the nurses’ union demanded higher wages and lower medical premiums. They rejected the hospital’s offer three other times in the past two months.

A recent report by the Health Resources and Services Administration’s Health Workforce showed there are nursing shortages projected nationwide until the year 2036. The demand for RNs and licensed practical nurses is estimated to exceed the supply in 2026 and 2031 specifically, projecting a 10% shortage in those career fields.

California is among the states with the largest project shortages of RNs at 26%, according to the report, flanked by Georgia (29%) and Washington (26%).

The demand and supply estimates are based on full-time hours, defined as working 40 hours per week.

Although it lands second on the list of states with the highest project nursing shortages, California ranks as the top state in the U.S. with the highest number of nurses needed — with a projected net deficit of more than 106,000 RNs, according to the report.

Even as the challenges facing the health care sector are projected to get worse before they get any better, there is a positive employment outlook for new grads or those moving to California from another state.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows California had the highest number of employed nurses in the country. According to the most recent data in May 2023, there were more than 330,000 employed RNs in California.

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