Warmer days ahead as kona winds to prevail

HONOLULU (KHON2) – On Sunday, attention will turn to a strong shortwave aloft digging sharply southward along 152W to the distant NNE of the islands that is expected to develop into a strong cutoff low as it stalls about 900 miles NNE of the state.

As this new low moves slowly west and eventually southwest from Monday through Tuesday night, the local pressure gradient will be quite weak, resulting in light and variable winds over the islands.

As the low slowly dissipates and begins to move N later in the week, high pressure building far NE of the area will promote a light SE flow on Wednesday, followed by strengthening trade wind flow by Thursday.

As far as rainfall over the next several days is concerned, a strong mid-level ridge will bring anomalously warm 500 mb temperatures in a relatively dry environment (with near to below normal precipitable water values).

Therefore, the airmass over the islands is expected to be quite stable and any rainfall that does occur will produce little in the way of accumulation.

As winds become light and variable beginning Sunday night and persist through the following couple of days, overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will develop.

This would set up a scenario for mostly clear nights and mornings with warm, muggy afternoons and chances for interior and mauka clouds and isolated showers.

The one caveat to the forecast is that models do show a couple of dissipating frontal boundaries nearing Kauai, with the first remnant cloud band arriving Sunday and the next around Tuesday.

This could result in a few more clouds and slightly better shower coverage for the Garden Isle when compared with the rest of the state.

Overall, however, the stable conditions will generally keep rainfall totals in check well into next week.