The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Francine today.

A slow drift northward is expected in the near-term, before a turn to the northeast on Wednesday. This will put the system very close to the Louisiana coastline Wednesday night, potentially as a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center is going with the possibility of a category one hurricane at landfall, which is in line with the latest GFS and European models, which both show a storm between category one and category two intensity.

The system does not have a defined circulation. In fact, it appears to have two centers along a trough axis. This doesn’t change the forecast much, however, as none of the models showed much strengthening through the next 24 hours, so that part of the forecast is on point.

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However, until we get a true “center” models may flip back and forth and be more unreliable than usual in terms of track. For that reason, I’d suggest not to get too concentrated on a landfall point, but acknowledge the cone of uncertainty in the National Hurricane Center forecast, which they themselves deem ‘low confidence.’

Both the GFS and European models do agree on some troublesome rainfall totals across the area for the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. Both models also agree on the possibility of wind gusts between 60-80 mph beginning across the area Wednesday night.

However, these are individual model runs and like mentioned above, the eventual landfall location will not be known until a true center develops. This is why we are not talking about ‘impact’ forecasts as this point, because of course impacts will be 100% dependent on landfall location.

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