The three months of summer are just about over. That has been a roller coaster ride, but it is St. Louis, so what's new!
Big swings in temperature, plenty of heat but some really nice breaks too, also big swings in moisture, bone dry at times going extremely wet, that's a wild ride.
Fall can be a very dry period of time but by late Fall that will continue to get better. Temperature. We had some wild swings.
The Northwest was the big player…but as expected, the dome of Summer to our southwest would flex its muscles from time to time bringing some strong Summer heat and humidity…especially the third week of the month…but nothing out of control. But the dominant northwest flow did a nice job of beating back the Summer dome of heat…that was a strong concept in the Summer forecast. .
Some highlights of our Summer:
June:
***Bone dry…a jump into thoughts of drought
***The hottest: 103 degrees, the coolest 58 degrees
*** No new records
***Temperatures well above average and rainfall well below
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July:
***No new records
***The hottest was 98 and the coolest 61 degrees
***Temperatures near average
***Rain and storms, an interesting pattern, many times too dry, several times too wet…one monster rain event…July 3-4-5
***Rainfall for the month was wet, well above average, 4.46” above average
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August (so far–still several days to go):
***No records (at this point).
***Temperatures have been either really hot with intense humidity to just plain delightful
*** Rainfall to this point below average. On the dry side, two thunderstorm events
*** So far temperatures near average for the month
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With all said and done, yes, a weird Summer with lots of swings, but nothing, nothing at all compared to the Summer’s of the 1930’s, the 1950’s and the 1960’s also some impressive heat in the 1980’s.
Let’s not lose sight of the past and get all hyped up about “A Summer like this has never happened before”. There have been many saying this, nationwide, because they leave out the heat of the past records…Without a past you can’t know the future. Also, the weather in the national media became a blow it out of proportion…”extreme weather” every day. When hearing the “chicken little” approach to weather, find out the main source…where is that info coming from…how was it gathered and what was left out of the data…also screen out the agendas and the politics…it’s dangerous out there. It has never been as lucrative to be political, than it is today. And remember, day to day weather is not climate…starting to like the phrase…”climate alarmism”.
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But it is time to look forward and say goodbye to Summer, 2024.
Fall officially begins Saturday, Sept. 22, 2024 and Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, at 2 a.m. On Saturday night, clocks are set back one hour (i.e., gaining one hour) to “fall back.”
On to the future with my Fall forecast for 2024 for the months of September, October and November in St. Louis.
There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together and in my book, they all have some heavy weight in the final forecast and this is just not a quick look. This is a process that goes on every day. Weather is my life and I love it.
On to the factors that are in play, here’s a short list (can’t give all my trade secrets away).
1. The Analogs: Looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now. Analogs may be the most important thing in my long range forecast. I am focused a La Nina, but it is really struggling. It does not seem to want to move out of a neutral stage, but trying, so like the years 1964, 1970, 2000 and 2020.
2. The Solar Cycle: We are at the solar max and may be turning the corner on that max, but it takes time and this will continue to be a big factor.
3. World Wide Volcanoes: Not just the activity but the locations. Critical in a long range forecast, things are increasing with this idea.
4. The Ocean Patterns: Just not the Pacific but all around the world, water temps in the Atlantic, around Australia, and the Indian Ocean are all important.
There are a number of other features that I look at when it comes to the atmosphere and the oceans, without getting into too much detail, here are some of the items. They are still all important.
1. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): While the MJO is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes...that is us. Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States. This continues to be a huge player for the Fall season. In fact it may be, by far, the biggest player for the Fall and into the Winter.
2. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO): As the name implies, the EPO is a variation in the atmospheric flow pattern across the eastern Pacific, as well as Alaska. When the EPO is in a positive phase, mild Pacific air flows straight into the West Coast of North America. As a result, when the EPO is negative, Alaska turns warmer than normal, a big cold rolls into the U.S. But right now, we are neutral.
3. The EP/NP Index(Also very interesting.) :The East Pacific - North Pacific (EP- NP) pattern is a Spring-Summer-Fall pattern with three main anomaly centers. The positive phase of this pattern features positive height anomalies located over Alaska/ Western Canada, and negative anomalies over the central North Pacific and eastern North America. Strong positive phases of the EP-NP pattern are associated with a southward shift and intensification of the Pacific jet stream from eastern Asia to the eastern North Pacific, followed downstream by an enhanced anticyclonic circulation over western North America, and by an enhanced cyclonic circulation over the eastern United States. Strong negative phases of the pattern are associated with circulation anomalies of opposite signs in these regions.
4: The Arctic oscillation (AO)
5. The Pacific is always a big player…La Nina slowly making a come back.
6. A cold (PDO) pacific decadal oscillation…limited effect right now
7. A warm (AMO) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
8. Two very active flows in the jet stream...the northern jet with the cold air source and the southern jet with the moisture. Both flows are having some fun this Fall season….especially the southern stream.
9. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA)...part of the state of the oceans…focused on a low pressure over Iceland and a high pressure over the Azores.
10. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
11. Pacific North American ((PNA)...a tri pole pressure pattern.
12. Western and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (WPO)(EPO)
These are many of the factors that come into play and must be looked at all the time for these seasonal forecasts. So let's get to the details into the Fall season in STL.
The keys to the Fall season...all about the La Nina pattern…no more El Nino…but La nNina is struggling and may continue to struggle all Fall season…even into the Winter…just does not want to take control ... .thinking… neutral for the Fall season.
Remember we never...never...just say…”oh, it is a La Nina or El Nino year...so it means only one idea...game over… No, they are all different...never broad-brush any ideas when it comes to weather…especially long-term ideas.
SEPTEMBER:
September Facts:
September 1st…sunrise: 6:30…sunset: 7:31
September 30th..sunrise:6:56…sunset: 6:46
Average high and low: 81.0/60.0
Average rainfall: 2.96”
The major factors:
*** This September will be known for a solid see-saw temperature pattern…all month long.
*** There will be two cool spells…two warm spells…otherwise just about where we should be…so equal cool and warm spells…
*** The key…nighttime temperatures will be making a slow but steady cool down…typical as we get into the Fall season.
*** When all is done with September temperatures will average out near average…overall a pretty nice month.
*** Records...I don’t see any high temperature records and I don’t see any overnight records...I don’t see any frost or freeze concerns...Let’s keep those home gardens going.
*** What about moisture...September typically is a dry month
*** Rainfall will be below average, maybe even well below average…that is good news for the harvest season.
*** Area rivers will be okay.
*** There is a second season of thunderstorms that occurs…typically not until October into early November…thinking limited thunderstorms this September..
SEPTEMBER SIGNS
* BLACK AND WHITE GARDEN SPIDERS ARE COMMON AROUND THE HOME
* LOOK FOR PUFFBALLS AND OTHER FALL MUSHROOMS
* LISTEN FOR MIGRATING BIRDS IN THE EVENING HOURS.
OCTOBER:
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October Facts:
October 1st…sunrise: 6:57…sunset: 6:44
October 31st...sunrise: 7:27…sunset: 6:02
Average high and low: 69.2/49.1
Average rainfall: 3.15”
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The major factors:
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*** I love the month of October...typically a wonderful month around the region...the heat and humidity of Summer is now a thing of the past....however temperatures are still a big player this month.
*** This October...temperatures will stay above average..both day and night…a rather warm month…could be well above average.
*** Of course there will be some cool spells as the days get shorter and the nights get longer…the cool down has to happen…but rather limited
*** Records...with my trend of above average temperatures day and night…we should not see any daytime or overnight records…this is not record breaking…but mild.
*** We typically turn colder by the end of October… and though it is hard to break that trend and idea…just don’t think we see a lot of cool to cold weather…even by the end of the month.
*** Frost or a freeze is alway possible…but not seeing any this October…keep the gardens going.
*** Rainfall for this October... typically a dry month...and thinking this October will also be dry...with rainfall amounts below average.
*** The rivers...large and small should be fine...staying in check...that is always good news…especially going in the Winter.
*** Mid to late October we have to consider the second season of the thunderstorm pattern..and with the above average temperatures I’m forecasting…the second season should be a play for the last half of this October…so the thunderstorm season is not over…we should have 1 or two rock and roll days.
*** The fall colors peak the last weekend of October…into mid November...the season should be fair…because the rainfall patterns have been too bouncy…so a mixed bag with the Fall colors.
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OCTOBER SIGNS
* PERSIMMONS START TO RIPEN
* LOOK FOR SPIDERS BALLOONING ON GOSSAMERS ON CLEAR, WINDY DAYS
* THE JUNCOS(BIRDS) ARRIVE FROM CANADA
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NOVEMBER:
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November Facts:
November 1st…sunrise: 7:28…sunset: 6:01
(Time change November 3rd…Fall Back)
November 30st...sunrise:6:59…sunset: 4:40
Average high and low: 55.1/37.4
Average rainfall: 3.42”
Average snowfall: 0.9”
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The major factors:
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*** November typically brings a steady step down to colder weather…day and night…November is typically a transition month with that process.
*** The catch… this November…I think that step down will be a real struggle and a very slow process.
*** Expect more see-saw temperatures but cold air is going to be hard to find…let’s think a mild to even warm November
*** I don’t see any cold records but would not be surprised to break 1 even two record highs.
*** Yes we will get a frost/freeze…but again a struggle…the best shot waiting until the end of the month.
*** The storm track will be active…especially to our north…so even though November typically brings an uptick in moisture and can be a very wet month…I’m thinking this November will be a little on the dry side. Below average rainfall.
*** The second season of thunderstorms, still in play…focus on the first 5 days of the month…most of the second season action will be in October.
*** It is November...and of course the snow bunnies start to chatter...what about snow...I don’t see any large storm systems that would bring snow...in fact right now not seeing much of anything…even light snow and flurries…no excitement here bunnies…nothing to see here.
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NOVEMBER SIGNS
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* BIRDS BEGIN GATHERING AT THE FEEDERS
* SCAN THE LEAFLESS TREES FOR PAPER NEST OF THE BALD-FACED HORNETS
* WOODCHUCKS ARE ASLEEP IN UNDERGROUND NESTS
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Enjoy the Fall season...we all know it will fly by...it is the season that is very pretty and pleasant most of the time in STL..but it is also the season that we step down into the next season...that of course is Winter...working on some of those ideas now...you all know I like to give the weather a chance and patterns do start to set up especially in October with solid clues about the Winter season…but an early, early clue…no El Nino…but La Nina will be a struggle…leaning more toward a neutral stage with a slight tilt to La Nina
So enjoy the Fall season, the changing tree colors and pumpkin time and football...my Winter forecast will be out mid to late November.
Time now for any questions or comments. Would love to hear from you.
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