Tennessee football's worst-case scenario in 2024? Lose to NC State, Oklahoma

Tennessee football had some disappointing performances last season but still posted a 9-4 record with a Citrus Bowl win.

So how much worse could this season go if the Vols struggled?

Unless there was a serious injury to an indispensable player, expect the floor to remain around that mark for the Vols in 2024.

Here’s how that could happen.

Tennessee football’s worst-case scenario in 2024?

Vols lose toss-up games plus Georgia

From a preseason perspective, UT could expect close games against Top 25 teams NC State, Oklahoma and Alabama.

There are reasons to believe the Vols could go 2-1 or 3-0 in those games. But they also could drop all three.

NC State has a proven quarterback in Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall and talented receivers, so it could challenge UT’s retooled secondary.

Oklahoma will have a raucous atmosphere for its first SEC game ever when the Vols play there. And Alabama is never an easy out, even with Nick Saban no longer on the sideline.

Add a loss at Georgia, and Vols would finish with a record no better than 8-4 and head to a second-tier bowl game.

Nico Iamaleava needs time to take off

It’s hard to believe that quarterback Nico Iamaleava won’t pan out. He has five-star talent, and he won the Citrus Bowl MVP award with three rushing TDs in his lone start as a freshman.

But it could take a little time for Iamaleava to hit his stride.

After all, he wasn’t flawless in the Citrus Bowl. He passed for only 151 yards and took six sacks.

So it’s plausible that Iamaleava would need at least a half season to find his groove. The Vols play NC State, Oklahoma and Florida in their first six games and then host Alabama, leaving little time for growing pains.

Defensive secondary rebuild isn’t a quick fix

It’s not difficult to identify a potentially problematic position.

UT’s secondary lost 12 defensive backs this offseason, including nine from the regular rotation.

Three transfers were added in Jermod McCoy (Oregon State), Jalen McMurray (Temple) and Jakobe Thomas (Middle Tennessee). Projected starter Jourdan Thomas suffered a season-ending injury in August.

TENNESSEE 2024 SEASON PREDICTIONS Game-by-game picks for Vols

Plus, the Vols also must rely on walk-on Will Brooks, freshman Boo Carter and some inexperienced defensive backs to replenish the secondary.

That’s a lot of turnover to overcome, even for a defense with veteran linemen. And it could make the difference in enough toss-up games to alter the season.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com . X, formerly known as Twitter @AdamSparks . Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe .

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football's worst-case scenario in 2024? Lose to NC State, Oklahoma