UT System wants 71K students, but looming 'enrollment cliff' means fewer high school grads

The University of Tennessee is preparing for a possible decline in high school graduates who want to attend college, a potential problem for a university system aiming to enroll 71,000 students across all its campuses by 2030.

Experts are calling this an "enrollment cliff" in which both the number of high school graduates and the 18-year-old population will begin to decline year-to-year.

High school graduate numbers across the country are projected to peak at 3.9 million in 2025. But the UT System is banking on data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education that projects a 2% increase in Tennessee high school graduates from 2019 to 2037.

Across all UT campuses, 71.69% of students are from the Volunteer State.

The UT System needs to enroll 12,274 more students to reach the the 71,000 enrollment goal in 2030, which UT President Randy Boyd plans to see all the way through with his recent reappointment .

Considering data related to this "enrollment cliff" − including a projection from the U.S. Census Bureau that the 18-year-old population will max out at under 4.5 million in 2026 before declining − UT leaders are relying on a comprehensive enrollment strategy discussed June 25 at the annual UT System Board of Trustees meeting.

Phase one of the strategy began in March 2023 to assess the situation and determine the next steps. Here's how UT leaders will work to reach the 71,000 enrollment goal:

• Coordinated systemwide strategy : Create an interconnected and transparent approach to enrollment that showcases each campus and increases interest in attending college.
• System operations : Plan for practices and metrics to enhance coordination and evaluation for the system.
• Campus differentiation : Build strategies to enhance the strengths of each campus to serve different student markets.

UT also plans to implement by Aug. 1 the Common Application , a centralized college application platform, for each UT campus.

Over the summer, the UT Enrollment Council will make an enrollment roadmap after determining how to roll out a sequence of initiatives that are still being discussed.

The Enrollment Council will start implementing parts of the strategic plan in August, and each campus will draft individual enrollment plans this fall.

Here are the enrollment numbers for each UT campus, along with the enrollment number each campus hopes to reach in 2030:

• UT Knoxville : Fall 2023 = 36,304 . Fall 2030 target = 41,000 students.
• UT Chattanooga : Fall 2023 = 11,380. Fall 2030 target = 14,800 students.
• UT Southern : Fall 2023 = 978. Fall 2030 target = 1,250 students.
• UT Martin : Fall 2023 = 6,941. Fall 2030 target = 10,000 students.
• UT Health Science Center : Fall 2023 = 3,123. Fall 2030 target = 3,950 students.
• UT System : Fall 2023 total = 58,726. Fall 2030 total target = 71,000 students.

Keenan Thomas is a higher education reporter. Email keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com . X, formerly known as Twitter @specialk2real .

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: UT System wants 71K students, but looming 'enrollment cliff' means fewer high school grads