Arkansas’ biggest earthquake and what might come next

ARKANSAS (KNWA/KFTA) — In the 1800s over a span of two months, United States settlers reported the earthshaking and their cabins “jumping” as a series of earthquakes rattled across states.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is a 150-mile-long fault zone zigzagging through Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) .

Although the fault line has not produced the largest earthquake it has the potential to cause billions of dollars of damage and destroy major cities.

1. There were three major earthquakes

Three major earthquakes rattled the New Madrid fault line from December 1811 until January 1812.

The first series of major earthquakes happened on Dec. 16, 1811, near Blytheville, Arkansas, which is northeast of the Mississippi River. It was said to have had a 7.7 magnitude earthquake and occurred at 2:15 a.m.

There were several large aftershocks. The largest aftershock was coined “Dawn.” It happened about 7:15 a.m. and was an estimated 6.8-7.0 magnitude aftershock.

The second one happened on January 23, 1812, with a 7.5 magnitude.

The third and final major earthquake happened on February 7, 1812, at about 3:00 a.m. That day, there were several destructive shocks, the last and largest estimated at 7.7 magnitude. The shaking severely damaged the town of New Madrid, Missouri.

“By March 15, 1812, an estimated 2,000 aftershocks had been felt, but it is likely that tens of thousands more were not felt or otherwise noted,” the Arkansas Division of
Emergency Management said. “At the time, many people were afraid to enter their homes for fear they would collapse. Damage from the largest of these shocks was reported from about 300 miles away.”

These series of quakes were not the first, researchers said that at least two similar earthquake sequences took place in 1450 AD and 900 AD and that over the past 5,000 years or so.

2. From the Midwest to the Eastern Coast

The first earthquake shook people awake 900 miles away at 2 a.m. It was said that President James Madison in Washington, D.C felt it .

The second earthquake was felt around 232,000 square miles away. The USGS said earthquakes in the Central US have the potential to be felt at greater distances because of its crustal structure.

“Because of the crustal structure in the Central US which efficiently propagates seismic energy, shaking from earthquakes in this part of the country are felt at a much greater distance from the epicenters than similar size quakes in the Western US,” USGS said.

Above is a short video of how a 7.7 magnitude earthquake can be felt in surrounding areas.

Historians said that people at the time were unfamiliar with earthquakes and recorded reports of the New Madrid earthquakes shared a range of things.

“What a lot of people noticed was their house would shake, the furniture would shake, water in a wash basin would slosh back and forth, your chimney would snap off,” Historian Kent Moran said. “You would be rousted out of the house in the wee hours of the morning and run outside wondering ‘What’s going on’ and you could hear the trees shaking in the forest, hear the limbs rattling and everything. You could see your cabin jumping around, kind of thing, and you didn’t know why because the last American earthquake of any magnitude was round 1755 in New England so this was totally new experience for everyone involved.”

3. Preparing for the big one

More recently a quake hit Poinsett County, Arkansas, on March 24, 1976. It was a 5.0 magnitude earthquake that occurred at the southern end of the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

It was felt over 174,000 square miles and caused power outages, downed telephone lines, broken windows, and roof damage, according to the ADEM .

The ADEM predicts that there is a 7–10% chance or probability that a quake of magnitude 7.0 or greater will occur in the New Madrid region within the next 50 years. Whereas the chance of a 6.0 or higher is 28-46%.

In July 2024, 500 emergency responders had a three-day exercise that focused on an emergency response to an 8.4 magnitude earthquake on the New Madrid Seismic fault line.

In the last 200 years, population in the St. Louis–Memphis region is estimated to have boomed to about 11–12 million people. A repeat of the New Madrid earthquake sequence would cause billions of dollars in damage, especially to older unreinforced brick buildings.

The NMSZ is the most seismically active area of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, according to information from the last 40 years of instrumental recordings. It experiences an average of 200 earthquakes (greater than M1.5) every year—most, however, are too small to be felt.

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