Weather Blog: Francine intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, how will we be impacted?

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (KNWA/KFTA) — You might have been hearing a lot of news about how the tropics are acting up. This has not been a surprise as we are in peak hurricane season .

We now have a named tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico . This storm is Tropical Storm Francine which is set to impact the gulf shore within the next 48 hours. Will it impact Northwest Arkansas ? How will it affect folks in the direct path of this storm? I will have all those answers in this weather blog.

As of 6:00 p.m. Monday, September 9th this storm was strengthening and located just southeast of far southern Texas. The Infrared (IR) Satellite shown below measures the temperatures of the clouds. Colder cloud tops indicates higher clouds. The shades of white and pink are cold. The higher clouds tell you that the storm is strong with intense convection .

Here is the latest forecast track of Tropical Storm Francine from the National Hurricane Center . The current track is NNW at 7 mph. It should strengthen as it makes a right turn. This is because it gets caught up in the jet stream. Francine is forecast to continue to strengthen into a Category 2 Hurricane as it approaches the Louisiana coast.

The low wind shear and warm water temperatures in the gulf are a couple reasons to explain the rapid intensification. Check out some buoy data below showing just how warm the water is.

Francine is forecast to weaken when it looses the influence of the warm/moist environment over the ocean. The track will then take it up the Eastern Arkansas state line.

Remember that, on the western side of a storm there is subsidence. This mechanism allows for clearer skies and much drier conditions. Check out the forecasted rainfall totals from the Weather Prediction Center for the next 7 days.

You can see the best chance for rain will be in our eastern counties. Western areas might not even see a drop of rain from this system. So to sum it all up, this storm will not have major impacts for our area. There will be a noticeable increase in cloud cover and the humidity especially Thursday and Friday. Check out this ECMWF future track showing clouds and precipitation.

Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley look to be spared from major impacts from this storm, however areas to our south and east will see major impacts. Hurricanes pose many threats to areas hit directly or even indirectly from the center of the storm. This storm is expected to bring life threatening storm surge, life threatening hurricane force winds, and considerable flash flooding from heavy rain. Check out some of these threat graphics from the National Hurricane Center.

There will be many updates to Francine and we’ll bring you the latest, so keep it here with Your Weather Authority Team.

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We’ll continue to keep you posted on the latest details and update this Weather Blog as more information becomes available. Follow us on our social media below for up-to-date information, and stay weather-aware!

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