NOAA releases latest prediction for La Niña winter, outlook for the Pacific Northwest

PORTLAND, Ore. ( KOIN ) — A weak La Niña is likely to develop over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the next few months, according to the latest NOAA outlook.

The chance of seeing a strong, long-lasting La Niña event is becoming less likely over the 2024-2025 winter season. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expecting to see equatorial Pacific waters to continue to cool, but not much different than average. Average equatorial Pacific Ocean waters is known as the ENSO-neutral period.

A weak La Niña winter is expected despite the North American forecast model trending slightly warmer, indicating no La Niña and more of an ENSO-neutral winter. “A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance. In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025,” was stated in the CPC’s discussion .

La Niña winter in the PNW

During a strong La Niña winter, much of the Pacific Northwest sees cooler and wetter weather on average. Remember, a strong La Niña isn’t expected during the 2024-2025 winter season.

Near-average winter conditions are likely this winter with maybe one or two more major winter storms. That would be the potential influence on the Pacific Northwest from a weak La Niña pattern.

ENSO-neutral winter in the PNW

The equatorial Pacific waters are slowly starting to cool and transition to a weak La Niña pattern over the next few months. Some of the winter influences from the previous ENSO-neutral pattern could give way to an average winter in the Pacific Northwest.

An average winter in the Portland, Vancouver metro area means an equal opportunity to see events like major snow or ice storms, but also a chance to see warmer and drier conditions.

Stay with the KOIN 6 Weather Team in the coming months as the impacts of La Niña continue to develop.

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