Friday, August 16 Forecast: More storms before a long mild, quiet stretch

Last night’s round of storms produced hail, some wind, and a lot of rain. Reports from Wright, Texas and Howell Counties were especially impressive with reports of 5″. This of course led to some flooding and quick rises on rivers in the area (something to thing about if you plan on floating this weekend). More storms are expected tonight, but further south and west.

A boundary draped along the state line will serve as a focus for thunderstorms overnight, but scattered storms will be possible further north as well into Southern Missouri thanks to some upper-level energy moving in from the northwest. As for severe potential, areas closer to the boundary and south of the boundary have the highest risk. Storms there could produce hail up to golf ball size, strong winds over 60 mph and flash flooding. Ingredients coming together tonight will lead to a pocket of excessive rainfall focused along and south of a Joplin to Branson line. Rain amounts will generally be in the 1 to 3″ range there with locally higher totals that could top 5″. Rain and thunderstorms will gradually shift southeast tonight through Northern Arkansas, ending before sunrise in most areas.

The heat will slowly ease over the weekend as a succession of boundaries ushers in drier air. This may allow for additional shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday night and again Sunday night into Monday morning. There will likely be a gradual shift of this risk west as the drier air builds in from the northeast. Temperatures will be in the 90s again Saturday with most areas below 90° Sunday.

The trough that we’ve seen in the East so much of this summer will send summer packing again next week. Mild, low-humidity air will flow into the Ozarks throughout the week. The pattern overall looks dry, but we’ll have to keep an eye on areas of clouds and showers spilling down the east side of the summer ridge to the west. Some of this cloud cover, and maybe even shower activity, could clip some of the region.

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