Oregon Winter Forecast: Cold, Stormy Season Ahead with Weather Shifts Statewide!

The winter 2024-2025 forecast predicts cold, stormy weather with above-average mountain snowfall.Photo byStock Image

By Kristy Tallman, October 18, 2024

Salem, OR – The Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) has released its seasonal climate forecast for November 2024 through January 2025, providing a comprehensive look at expected weather patterns across the state. This forecast, created in partnership with the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), offers insights on projected temperatures, precipitation, and the impact of global weather patterns such as El Niño and La Niña.

November 2024 Forecast

Temperature and Precipitation Trends
November is expected to be milder than usual, with above-average temperatures dominating the early part of the month. This period will feature dry conditions typical of Oregon's transition out of the dry season. However, by the second half of the month, expect a significant increase in storm activity, with weather systems moving in from the southwest. As storms become more frequent, precipitation will increase, and snow levels are likely to drop to the mountain passes by the end of November. Cold outbreaks in the lowlands are unlikely during this time, but higher elevations will begin to see accumulating snow.

December 2024 Forecast

Cold Fronts and Precipitation
December will mark a more noticeable shift in weather patterns as the region transitions into winter. The forecast indicates a blend of conditions, ranging from stormy weather to colder, snowy periods. Anomalous troughing in the Pacific Northwest is expected, leading to cooler temperatures and increased storm activity.
Historical analog years, such as 1966 and 1992, suggest that the Pacific Northwest could see lowland snow and ice events during December, though forecasts also show the possibility of mild spells. Precipitation will likely be near or above average, with substantial snowfall in the mountains ensuring good snowpack accumulation.
Oregon’s mountain passes and higher elevations are expected to see significant snow accumulation, while the Willamette Valley and coastal areas could experience rain and colder storms later in the month. The latter part of December may bring lowland snow events, depending on how the troughing patterns evolve.

January 2025 Forecast

Volatile Weather and Heavy Snow
January 2025 is forecasted to bring a more volatile mix of weather, with a high probability of strong storms accompanied by colder temperatures. The Pacific Northwest is likely to experience a pattern of anomalous ridging in the Gulf of Alaska combined with troughing over Oregon. These patterns could lead to a series of high-wind events, as well as heavy snowfalls in the mountains.
In particular, southern Oregon may be hit with strong storms, while the northern regions could experience alternating periods of mild, stormy weather and cold, snowy conditions. This forecast suggests that January 2025 will be a critical month for snow accumulation in the state’s mountain ranges, making it a key period for water resources and winter recreation.

Climate Patterns and La Niña Influence

This seasonal forecast has been shaped by ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning towards a weak La Niña by early 2025. La Niña typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest, which aligns with the forecast for increasing storm activity and lower temperatures in December and January.
Historical data from previous La Niña years (such as 1966-67, 1992-93, and 2016-17) has been used to model these projections. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), currently in a cool phase, is also influencing these conditions, contributing to the likelihood of colder-than-average weather, especially during the winter months.

Forecast Highlights for Winter 2024-2025

• November 2024: Mild start with increased storm activity by mid-to-late November. Snow levels begin to drop in mountain passes.
• December 2024: Expect cold fronts, lowland snow, and increased precipitation. Above-average snowfall anticipated in the mountains.
• January 2025: More volatile weather with a mix of storms, heavy winds, and snow events in higher elevations. Possibility of lowland snow and colder temperatures statewide.
• La Niña Influence: Cooler, wetter conditions forecasted through the winter, increasing the likelihood of lowland snow and above-average mountain snowfall.

Winter Outlook

This winter is expected to behave differently from last year, which was influenced by a strong El Niño. With ENSO-neutral conditions currently transitioning to La Niña, Oregonians should prepare for a cold and stormy winter, particularly in December and January. Residents in higher elevations should anticipate heavy snowfall, while lower elevations may see colder storms and occasional snowfall. Water resource managers and winter recreation planners can expect above-average mountain snowpack, which is crucial for the region’s water supply in the spring.

For more details, visit the ODA's Seasonal Climate Forecast page or contact ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons at 503-945-7448.

If you've enjoyed this article, please consider Buying Me a Coffee. I am an Independent Journalist traipsing through the censorship to bring you the best local, state, and national news stories available.

By Kristy Tallman, Oct. 18, 2024
The Republic News

Source: Oregon Department of Forestry, (weather forecast)

If you have a news story or video you’d like shared, email kristy.tallman@therepublicheadlines.com.

#OregonWeather #SeasonalForecast #Winter2024 #MountainSnow #LaNiña #KristyTallman