Heavy rain, mountain snow on the way this weekend

A strong, fall storm system will be moving into New Mexico starting Friday. Widespread rain, with locally heavy rainfall, and mountain snow will continue through the weekend.

A strong, fall storm system will begin moving into New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Gusty south, southwest winds will develop from southwest New Mexico up to Santa Fe, with gusts up to 45 mph. Strong to severe storms are likely in northeast New Mexico by the afternoon. Meanwhile, the strong cold front associated with the storm system will begin moving into western New Mexico and southwest Colorado by early Friday afternoon. It is along this front that the heaviest rain and mountain snow will fall. The front will move east into the Rio Grande Valley by late Friday evening, bringing briefly heavy rainfall and storms, along with briefly heavy mountain snow. It will continue to march eastward overnight into Saturday morning, bringing heavy rainfall in eastern parts of the state.

Through the day Saturday, scattered showers and storms will continue, mainly across northern and eastern New Mexico. In the morning, some light snow will be possible all the way down to I-40 in western parts of New Mexico. Snow will continue to fall above 9,000′ in the northern mountains and the mountains in southern Colorado. There is increasing confidence that strong to severe storms are likely Saturday afternoon in eastern New Mexico. These storms will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds, and could produce hail and even a couple isolated tornadoes.

By late Saturday night and early Sunday morning a band of very heavy rain will continue to fall in northeast and eastern New Mexico. This could cause flooding in this part of the state. Scattered showers and lighter mountain snow will continue to stick around northern and eastern New Mexico into late Sunday evening before moving out Sunday night. Once this storm moves out, parts of northeast New Mexico could pick up as much as 5″ of rainfall, with around an inch of rain as far south as Roswell. Flash flooding may be possible across the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar area this weekend. Meanwhile, above 9,000′ in the northern mountains, a few inches of snowfall accumulation is likely. In the San Juan Mountains in southwest Colorado, 12″ to 36″ inches” of snow is likely.

Drier weather returns to the entire state by Monday. The morning will bring some of the coldest air we have seen in months. Temperatures start a warming trend in the afternoon. High temperatures will climb back above average by the middle of next week with sunny and dry weather sticking around.

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