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Seismologist warns of increasing earthquake activity in Southern California
By Marc Sternfield,
2024-08-13
Monday’s 4.4 magnitude earthquake that jolted the Los Angeles area is part of a broader trend of increased seismic activity in Southern California that is likely to continue, according to the region’s leading seismologist.
“2024 has had more earthquakes than any year we’ve seen since 1988,” Dr. Lucy Jones , a geophysicist and researcher at Caltech , said in an interview on KTLA 5 Morning News Tuesday.
Since 1932, Southern California has averaged 10 to 12 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or greater per year. However, Jones noted that the past 20 years have seen an average of just five such quakes annually.
While many people may believe—or hope—that a series of smaller quakes reduces the chance of a major one hitting the region, Jones says that is simply not how it works.
“The most constant feature of earthquakes is the relative number of large to small,” she said. “For every magnitude seven, you have 10 magnitude sixes, 100 magnitude fives, 1,000 magnitude fours, etc. So, if your rate of [magnitude] fours goes up, your chance of having a bigger one would go up by about the same amount.”
In other words, Jones says more earthquakes mean – more earthquakes.
While no one can predict when the anticipated “big one” will hit, she offered some reassurance that California is better prepared than ever and that people are more prepared.
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“We have built our houses and buildings in California not to collapse, and overwhelmingly that’s true,” she said. “Being prepared doesn’t just mean having supplies; having water is important, but talking with your friends and family about it and having a plan together is probably more important than anything else.”
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