Does an increase in earthquake activity mean the ‘big one’ is coming? Seismologists say no

When a rapid succession of earthquakes occurs, like it has in recent weeks, it always brings the same conversation to office water coolers across California: Is the “ big one ” coming?

The fear of another massive quake is justifiably rooted in reality. The 6.7 magnitude 1994 Northridge earthquake that killed 57 people and the 6.9 magnitude 1989 Loma Prieta quake that killed 67 people are still engrained in Californians’ minds.

More than 30 years removed from those catastrophic shakers, residents and experts alike know that California is due for another.

Memories of the destruction come up every time there’s a batch of quakes. But does that mean the worries are justified? Not according to a couple of the most trusted seismologists in the state.

When reacting to Thursday morning’s 4.7 tremor near Malibu , Dr. Lucy Jones said that earthquakes don’t act in patterns.

“Yes we are feeling ( more quakes this year ) but it’s not yet statistically significant,” Jones said in a news conference Thursday. “Seismologists look for patterns — everybody looks for patterns — that’s why we have myths of earthquake weather and animals and all of these things are us trying to form a pattern of what is inherently a random distribution.”

Jones acknowledged that there has been more earthquakes of at least 4.0 magnitude this year than in many in recent memory, but that doesn’t mean that the “big one” is imminent.

Dr. Sue Hough of the U.S. Geological Survey said there’s been conflicting studies about what leads up to a large earthquake. Some say there’s more activity before a major quake, others say there’s virtually none.

“The question is do patterns have any predictive meaning,” Hough said. “As [Jones] said, that when you do the tests rigorously, they just don’t.”

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