La Niña development delayed but still expected before winter

SPOKANE, Wash. -- La Niña is still coming in 2024, but it's taking a while to develop. Odds for development for the summer were over 50%, but it now seems unlikely to emerge until later in the fall.

La Niña is the cold phase of the ENSO ocean cycle of water temperatures in the East Pacific Ocean. When waters off of Pacific South America are warm, it's El Niño. Currently, we are in the third phase, Neutral, after cooling off from El Niño this past winter and spring.

For the Pacific Northwest, weather tends to be warmer and drier during El Niño and wetter and cooler during La Niña. Weather during Neutral is somewhere in between since the ENSO cycle doesn't really have an influence on global weather during this phase.

The slower than expected start to La Niña back in spring isn't something that's happened a lot in our known record of ENSO. There were only six years from 1950 to 2023 where La Niña developed during the fall months. It's more common to develop earlier in the year.

During those years, the Cascades and Central Washington were wetter than normal, while Eastern Washington and North Idaho saw average rainfall. Southeast Washington was slightly dry.

Southeast Washington was also warmer than normal during those years along with Western Washington and North-Central Idaho. Northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle experienced normal temperatures.

4 News Now will continue to update you on the status of La Niña as we get closer to winter.

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