By Rita LeBleu Six to eight tropical storms could develop in the Gulf this hurricane season, and June and July will be “quiet” in Southwest Louisiana, according to Roger Erickson. The self-described optimist and National Weather Service meteorologist-in-charge put the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hurricane forecast in perspective for the Kiwanis Club of Lake Charles on Tuesday.
“We’re expecting a lot of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and Gulf, “ the 29-year veteran meteorologist said, “but rather than focus on these monster numbers – I think the latest advertised is 17 to 25 tropical storms – I like to look at smaller numbers.”
Based on data since 1950, the Gulf has averaged four storms. Erickson expects that number could rise to six, maybe double this year. Weather patterns have been changing, but Erickson stayed away from discussing climate change.
From January through May this year, the Lake Charles National Weather Service has issued the most warnings since 1982, the most active weather pattern for 29 years.
The good news is, he’s not expecting severe weather until mid-August. “There is a lag in terms of seeing atmospheric changes based on water temperatures,” he said.
El Nino and La Nino are terms based on the water temperatures near the Equator and Pacific Ocean. Above normal temps are El Nino and below normal temps are La Nino.
“Windshear in the Gulf will keep “things from going crazy,” he said. Plus, historically speaking, the U.S. Gulf Coast is usually void of activity in the month of June. (Hurricane Audrey was an exception.)
“Three weeks from now, we’ll see what happens. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get something in June, I would be surprised if it comes here,” he said.
Erickson feels so confident that July will be severe weather-free that he has scheduled a two-and-a-half week vacation that month.
In addition to weather predictions, Erickson made a “people” prediction. At the end of July, he expects Southwest Louisiana residents are going to be thinking NOAA got those monster numbers all wrong. That’s not the case, exactly.
“August and September will be busy,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see six at one time out there (in the Gulf). Blink and it’s October and you’ve just gone through 15 to 20 storms,” he said.
He can’t say if anything is coming here. “My gut feeling with everything so far is that the Eastern Gulf will be more active than the Western Gulf, just based on the early season parameters we’re looking at. So, we’ll see how that verifies later in the year.”
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season, according to its website. Of the 17-25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, it reported that eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.
The Lake Charles NWS covers six counties in Texas and 16 parishes in Louisiana. The public can check out the website for the most up to date weather information.
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