Michigan State football at Maryland: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State's football game at Maryland, 3:40 p.m. Saturday. TV: Big Ten Network. Betting line: Maryland -8.5

1. Aidan Chiles, Take 2

Aidan Chiles’ debut as MSU’s starting quarterback didn’t go how he wanted it to. Offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren described the performance as Chiles’ “floor.” I don’t know what Chiles’ ceiling is for this season. But, in his second career start and final game as an 18-year-old, he probably shouldn’t worry about finding it or being a playmaker as much as he is finding a rhythm and making the throws that keep the chains moving. Becoming the headliner and star he wants to be begins with being consistent and solid. He can grow from there. But he can’t skip that step.

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2. MSU’s receivers could use a redo, too

From senior Montorie Foster on down, MSU’s receivers were targeted 17 times last week and caught six passes, tight ends not included. That simply won’t do. Foster and Jaron Glover combined for 13 of those targets and totaled three catches and two fumbles, all from Foster. Some of that falls on Chiles, but these guys have to get better separation and hang on to opportunities to help him out. I don’t think that there’s a ready-to-go game-breaker in this group — perhaps Nick Marsh becomes that in time, but he’s a freshman who barely played in the opener (though he could see more time with Alante Brown’s injury). Foster, though is a proven, solid player who made some big-time plays last season. We’ve seen flashes of Glover’s talent, too. This would be a good week to show it.

3. The running game and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams

We all saw what we saw in last week’s MSU opener — an offensive line that didn’t create consistent running lanes, but also that Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams was the more productive and intriguing performer of MSU's two running backs. MSU’s offense and young quarterback badly need a formidable ground attack. Problem is, until the passing game is functional, defenses are going to make that difficult. Still, MSU’s tackles and tight ends have to be better run blockers and MSU’s coaches need to make sure they’re giving the right back the bulk of the carries. I wouldn’t write off Nathan Carter after one game during which he didn’t have any room to operate, but, based on last week, Lynch-Adams should more evenly split the carries until it’s sorted out. He was unquestionably the better back in Week 1.

4. Maryland’s new QB and passing attack

Billy Edwards Jr. had a nice first start as Maryland’s quarterback — 20-of-27 passing for 311 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Most of his completions came on underneath or mid-range passes, though, and Connecticut didn’t offer a ton of resistance. How does Edwards fare if MSU gets after him? And how well will MSU get after him? He does have the advantage of having proven running backs and some speed at wideout, including Tai Felton, who caught seven passes for 178 yards and two scores last week. As untested as Edwards might be, so is MSU’s defense in coverage, given the lack of passing game the Spartans faced last week against Florida Atlantic. Who gets the better of this battle — or at least whether MSU holds its own — will go a long way in determining whether the Spartans are in this game.

5. How real is this MSU defense

There is no question that what we saw from the Spartans defensively last week was as encouraging as any performance in several years. We just don’t yet know how real it is. Tackling in space is a skill that should carry over and carry MSU a ways this season. But MSU was often on the front foot against Florida Atlantic in terms of creating pressure and dictating terms. If the Spartans are more often on their heels, how does that tackling look? How disciplined are they with their assignments if Maryland starts moving the ball or hitting a few big plays? This week is a test in two ways — how well can MSU’s defense control the game with its talent and depth and coaching, and how mentally resilient is this group as the opponent on the other side begins to win more of the battles.

RELATED: Couch: Tough times are coming for MSU's football team, but its defense might be up for this

Prediction

The Vegas line for this game has settled at Maryland by 8.5. That feels about right, given what we’ve seen from these two teams. The Terrapins are a more seasoned program. They’re playing at home and with hope still high after a lopsided win. Unless MSU’s offense finds itself in ways that didn’t show in the opener, it’s hard to imagine the Spartans quite keeping up.

Make it: Maryland 23, MSU 13

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Maryland: 5 determining factors and a prediction