New Mexico State College Football Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total 2024

New Mexico State Aggies Preview 2024

New Mexico State came up with the second-best season in school history - and second ever year with double-digit wins - enjoying 17 victories and two bowl appearances in two seasons under Jerry Kill.

Before that, the program suffered 18 losing campaigns in 19 years. It will take something special to not revert back to form.

Kill retired, assistant coach and former UNLV head man Tony Sanchez is taking over, and gone are lots and lots and lots of Aggies to other teams.

Give or take one or five depending on when you're reading this, about 19 New Mexico State players are gone, and they’re not just off to find any old place to play. Most are finding homes in Power Four programs thanks to all the development from Kill and Sanchez.

So you’ll notice throughout this preview the words “needs” and “must” and other things like that, because this team needs to find players and must get a whole lot of breaks to pull off another winning season.

But before going into the doom-and-gloom over a roster that’s a shadow of its 2023 self, Kill and Sanchez proved it can be done. It’s possible to win at New Mexico State.

It might need this year to figure out how to do it again.

New Mexico State Preview 2024: Offense

- Can the offense maintain the same style and effectiveness? The Aggies finished 14th in the nation in rushing averaging close 200 yards per game, but QB Diego Pavia led the team in rising and now he’s off to Vanderbilt.

Kentucky transfer Deuce Hogan won’t run like Pavia, but he has the passing skills to keep things moving because …

- The offensive line might be the best in Conference USA. Former head coach Jerry Kill knew how to put together a front five as well as anyone in the game, and this is one area that didn’t get destroyed by the transfer portal.

OT Shiyazh Pete and C Canaan Yarro are all-stars to build around, and this is one part of the team where depth isn’t too much of an issue. Get junior RB Monte Watkins some room - he averaged 9.7 yards per carry - and he’ll make something happen.

- The Aggie receiving corps is paper thin after all the transfer losses. Hogan should get the time behind this line to make his corps good, but Kordel David is the leading returning target with just 20 catches last season. It’ll be trial by fire.

New Mexico State Preview 2024: Defense

- The offensive side took a big hit with all the personnel losses. It’s even worse on defense. The D that led CUSA allowing just 22.8 points per game isn’t totally starting over, but for the most part it is. The linebacking corps has some parts. Buddha Pellet is a baller of an outside rusher, and Sone Aupoi it tough in the middle of the linebacking corps, but …

- The secondary made most of the plays. Four of the top five seven of the top ten tacklers were defensive backs, and a slew of them are gone.

The transfer portal is throwing lots of new parts at the problem, starting with Arizona State’s Josiah Cox stepping in at one safety spot and with Iowa State’s Myles Norwood needing to lock down one corner job.

- The line has missing the size of last year’s front three, but there should be a decent rotation here as the season goes on. Former UNLV Rebel Naki Fahina coming in to sit on the nose should matter - he has to serve as an anchor along with 295-pound Sioeli Helu.

New Mexico State Key To The Season

STAY … HEALTHY.
The defense has to come up with more takeaways, the running game has to find a groove right away, and the main men have to emerge at several spots, but more than anything else, the starting 22 needs time to grow. Piecing things together after all the losses is hard enough, but if there’s a rash of injuries early on … uh oh.

New Mexico State Key Player

QB Deuce Hogan, Sr.
He has the size, the arm, and the big passing ability to be wanted by both Iowa and Kentucky, but he was never able to break through.

The offense needs a tough veteran who’s ready to prove something - and ready to make everyone around him better. Hogan is taking on a tough situation, but he has to be ready for the challenge.

New Mexico State Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: S Josiah Cox, Soph.
Hogan is the biggest transfer coming in, but Cox is a big deal to try growing into a spot over the next year or so. He only made three tackles in his one year at Arizona State, but he’s young, has the range, and needs to quickly become one of the statistical stars of a secondary that will make plenty of plays.

Top Transfer Out: DT Sterling Webb, Jr.
It’s hard enough for New Mexico State to find and develop players on a consistent basis, but coming up with productive defensive tackles is a really, really big deal. Webb turned into a key to the defense last year and a good interior pass rusher, but now he’s a Missouri Tiger.

New Mexico State Key Game

Liberty, Sept. 7
Oh why not?

Liberty is loaded again as the easy favorite to win the Conference USA title, New Mexico State is all but starting over after losing to the Flames twice - including in the conference title game - so there’s nothing really to lose here.

If the Aggies can somehow pull this off at home, most of the concerns and problems from the transition over the last year won’t seem so bad.

New Mexico State 10 Best Players

1. Shiyazh Pete, OT Jr.
2. Canaan Yarro, C Sr.
3. Sone Aupiu, LB Soph.
4. Deuce Hogan, QB Sr.
5. Monte Watkins, RB Jr.
6. Avery Morris, LB Sr.
7. Dylan Early, S Sr.
8. AJ Vaipulu, OG Jr.
9. Keonte Glinton, CB Sr.
10. Cedric Claiborne, OT Sr.

New Mexico State 2023 Fun Stats

- NMSU 1st Quarter Scoring: 79, NMSU 2nd Quarter Scoring: 138

- Fumbles: NMSU 13 (lost 5), Opponents 12 (lost 6)

- Rushing Yards Per Attempt: NMSU 5.7, Opponents 4.4

New Mexico State 2024 Season Prediction, Win Total, What Will Happen

This is NOT going to be easy.

The Aggies managed to roll through a weak Conference USA last year when everything clicked, and even then it took a few close-call fights to get by. Three wins were by a touchdown or less, there were losses to bad UMass and Hawaii teams, and …

Most of the Conference USA teams are at little bit better.

Even so, there are more than enough winnable 50/50 games to sneak through a few, but there’s too much turnover and too many question marks to come close to another winning season or a bowl game.

The team will bring the fight, and getting Liberty and Western Kentucky at home might help, but expect a slew of close losses that would’ve been wins last season.

Set The New Mexico State Win Total At … 4

Likely Wins: SE Missouri

50/50 Games: at FIU, at Jacksonville State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, at Middle Tennessee, New Mexico, at Sam Houston, UTEP, Western Kentucky

Likely Losses: at Fresno State, at Texas A&M