Democrats banking on undecided Latinos for path to White House

Sonia Villamizar has never cast a vote in the United States, despite becoming a citizen two decades ago.

With a close presidential election looming, and both parties campaigning hard on immigration issues, she is considering voting for the first time.

But so far neither side has convinced her.

"I don't see what plan they really have to help migrants," said Villamizar, attending a Las Vegas conference for Latino civil rights this week in the battleground state of Nevada.

The 36-year-old is part of a demographic that the Democrats seemingly must win if they are to have any chance at holding on to power this November: undecided Latinos.

Some 36.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote this election -- 14.7% of all potential voters -- according to the Pew Research Center.

Among those, 13 million Latino US citizens are not even registered to vote, including many young adults, according to Clarissa Martinez de Castro, of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative.

And then there are Latinos like Villamizar, who are registered but have simply chosen not to vote, at least so far.

- Mobilizing voters -

Democrats are investing heavily in bilingual campaign ads and events in states with dense Latino populations, particularly Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas.

President Joe Biden had been due to attend a Latino community event in Las Vegas this week when he tested positive for Covid-19, forcing him to cancel.

But his candidacy could now be on borrowed time, with party heads and donors calling him to step down.

Regardless of the Democrats' candidate in November, the party's traditional Latino base in the southwestern United States will be key.

"Our votes in Arizona and Nevada means significantly more because they are going to determine who the next president of the United States is," Francisco Aguilar, secretary of state for Nevada, told AFP.

At a panel event about mobilizing voters in Las Vegas, Aguilar said "only half" of registered Latinos vote.

"What impact would it have if you took that 50 percent and turned it into 80 or 90 percent?" responded Adrian Fontes, secretary of state for Arizona.

But, the Democrat added, his party may struggle to get these new voters if it is not "paying attention to them until two or three weeks before Election Day."

- 'Empathy' -

While Latinos traditionally favor Democrats over Republicans, that margin has shrunk in recent years.

A Pew survey after Biden's disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump last month even reported Latino voting intentions were tied, at 36 percent for each party.

Immigration has become a thorny issue for the Democrats among Latinos.

One side blames Biden for being lax on the border. Another group feels let down by the lack of immigration reforms.

In an attempt to thread that needle, the Biden administration has shut the border to asylum seekers after certain daily limits, while easing the process for undocumented spouses of US citizens to obtain residency status.

"The most important thing is to have a government that has consideration and empathy for migrants," said Raquel Albuez, a Dominican who gained US residency a decade ago but sees citizenship as an uphill climb.

"We pay taxes, start from scratch and work hard for opportunity in this country. We want a government that will help us," she said.

- 'Conservative' -

Meanwhile, Trump has promised mass deportations of illegal immigrants and vowed to close the border on his first day as president if reelected.

These policies appeal to many discontented Latinos who are long-established in the United States and feel little in common with recently arrived compatriots.

"There is a percentage of the Latino community that leans conservative," said Leilani Hinyard, president of the North Las Vegas Democratic Club.

"We have to explain to them the dangers of a Trump administration... It is vital they understand the consequences," Hinyard said.

Trump also appears to be gaining Latino support for his economic policies.

Jose Suarez, a rideshare app driver in Las Vegas who voted for Biden in 2020, said he is on the fence this time.

"Before, you could hope to buy a house here. Now? Even paying for the weekly groceries is difficult," he said. "Things have gotten bad and I'm starting to wonder if we shouldn't give Trump another chance."

Even so, Nevada union leader Susie Martinez is adamant that the Latino bloc will hold for Democrats this November.

"A good part of Trump's agenda is not going to help Latinos. It's going to help his people -- the rich, the corporations," she told AFP.

"People know the difference, and they will vote for Biden. In the end, Latinos know what's important," Martinez added.