Can the Reds make a run?
By Chuck Hamilton,
28 days agoThe short answer to the above question is yes.
The answer gets much more complicated if the word “can” is changed to “will.”
It would take a major turnaround and a semi-collapse by the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers for the Redlegs to contend for the division title. Cincy could still qualify for a Wild Card, but that won’t be an easy chore either. There are just so many teams bunched up in the quest for the three bids, and at the present time, the 47-50 Reds are on the outside looking in. One thing is certain; the club needs to show significant improvement over the final 65 games.
They showed what they’re capable of offensively just before the break, even though it came at the expense of the dregs of the National League. That is, until the final game of the series against the lowly Miami Marlins, when the home team reverted back to the weak offensive attack they have struggled with throughout the first several months. It took an Elly De La Cruz two-run home run to keep the Reds from being blanked, squeezing out just four hits against five Miami hurlers.
A more productive and consistent offense will be a necessity if the team hopes to challenge for a Wild Card. The Reds also need to cut down significantly on rally-killing baserunning blunders and reduce their mental errors, and get key players back from injury who will produce offensively. They also have to hope the bullpen can hold out for the duration of the long season, and keep the team in games.
That may be asking too much, but all hope is not yet lost.
The Reds have nine games on the road (Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay for three each) before returning to GABP for three against the Chicago Cubs to wrap up July. Cincinnati needs to get above .500 as quickly as possible to be considered a serious contender for a Wild Card, but thus far, that’s been a struggle. We will see in the next 10 days if the front office has any faith in the team being a contender and becomes a buyer, but it remains extremely doubtful they will pull off any major deals to improve the club anytime soon.
That means they will go with what they have, which translates to likely coming up short again. The Reds need a record of 35-30 to equal last year’s 82-80 finish, which was a game shy of making the playoffs. The same record this season could very well produce the same result, so the team needs an even stronger second half to ensure a Wild Card berth, perhaps an overall mark with between 84-88 wins. It’s hard to see the Reds going 39-26 the rest of the way to get to 86 wins, or even 37-28 to reach 84 wins, but it isn’t impossible.
But if I were a betting man, I would wager on the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers to be division champions, with the Wild Card spots going to the Braves, Padres and Cardinals.
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PITCHERS DOMINATING IN MLB – The overall season batting average in Major League Baseball heading into the break was .243, just ahead of 2022 and 1968, aka the Year of the Pitcher, as the lowest since the dead-ball era of 1920. That even includes a recent increase, with teams hitting .246 in June, and .250 in July.
There are several reasons for the drop-off, with the primary one being all of the hard throwers in MLB rotations and bullpens these days. Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted, “I didn’t see 100 (mph) when I was playing. It’s commonplace now.” He has a great point, and it wasn’t all that long ago that he was playing, with 2008 being his last big league season.
Another reason is that many hitters consistently swing for the fences, and often come up woefully short. Some hitters practically come out of their shoes while trying to launch fast balls to the moon every time they step to the plate. The lack of contact hitting is likely not going to go away anytime soon. This year’s minor league batting average is .243, down from .256 in 2019.
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MIDSUMMER CLASSIC TAKES – The All-Star Game television ratings have fallen off over the years, but it’s still one of the annual highlights of the summer. I could again be showing my advanced age, but I still have an interest in the game, even though the uniforms worn by the participants need to go away forever. The players should be wearing their team uniforms, perhaps with a cap that signifies their All-Star status.
This year’s game wasn’t spectacular or memorable, but it was interesting with so many players making their All-Star debuts. There is a remarkable array of up-and-coming stars in both leagues, so maybe even the commissioner won’t be able to completely ruin interest in the National Pastime after some of his questionable decisions in recent years, especially putting a
runner at second base in extra innings. He’s currently yapping about having robot umpires as well. Ugh.
The 2024 game will be memorable for a couple of first-timers for completely different reasons. For Reds pitcher Hunter Greene, he won’t soon forget giving up the eventual winning runs on a two-run bomb from Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran. Duran earned MVP honors with the blast that went 413 feet over the wall in right-center field that completed the American League’s 5-3 comeback victory. It also gave the AL its 10th win in the last 11 All-Star Games.
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DAY 3 NOTES – Rounds 11-20 of the MLB Draft were conducted on Tuesday, and the later rounds are integral to teams looking to improve depth in their respective farm systems. An added bonus occurs when a player selected in those rounds progresses to be a major factor on the big-league club, and it occurs quite often.
Three Kentucky pitchers were picked on Day 3, with Mason Moore going to the Chicago White Sox in the 15th round, Travis Smith heading to Milwaukee, also in the 15th, and southpaw Dominic Niman taken by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 18th round.
Moore, a former basketball and baseball star at Rowan County, became the most accomplished postseason pitcher in UK history. He was unscored upon over the first 23 2/3 innings in the NCAA Tournament. Smith, a Walton native, announced he was transferring to Mississippi State before being picked by the Brewers. Niman, from West Hartford, Connecticut, became the seventh Wildcat and the third by the Rays in the draft.
We mentioned the other UK selections in Wednesday’s column, with left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt taken by Arizona in the first round, second baseman Emilien Pitre going to the Rays in the second round, and a pair of 10th round selections, first baseman Ryan Nicholson heading to the Angels, and pitcher Trey Pooser, picked by the Rays.
It marked the first time in program history that two UK players were picked in the first 60, with Waldschmidt going 31st, and Pitre 58th.
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UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS INK DEALS – Players who went undrafted were able to sign with any club of their choosing, and several from the area did just that.
Kentucky’s slick-fielding shortstop Grant Smith signed with the Chicago White Sox, and his teammate on the left side of the infield, third baseman Mitchell Daly, is heading to the Angels. Smith Those signings also mean that the entire starting infield from Kentucky’s 46-15 team is moving on to the professional ranks. It is somewhat surprising that the team’s leader in three offensive categories, Nick Lopez, has yet to sign with a team. The Southern Cal transfer hit .341 with 77 hits , 22 of which were doubles.
The Kansas City Royals signed shortstop Colton Becker, who hit .346, and stole 29 bases for the Morehead State Eagles. He led the conference in steals and finished his career with the program career record of 57. He wrapped up his Eagle career with a .301 batting average and 29 home runs, including 14 this season. Becker attended Little Miami High School in Maineville, Ohio.
Cesar Avila, a righthanded pitcher from the University of the Cumberlands, signed with the Angels. The California native was 13-0 with a 2.85 ERA for the Patriots, with 124 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings.
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IT’S ALL RELATIVE – The recent 2024 MLB Draft had more than its share of names familiar to legions of baseball fans.
The Atlanta Braves’ opening round selection and the 24th overall pick, lefthanded pitcher Cam Caminiti, a high schooler from Saguaro, Ariz., is the cousin of former All-Star third baseman Ken Caminiti, who played 15 seasons in the bigs, died in 2004, before Cam was born.
The 47th overall pick was Wyatt Sanford, a high school shortstop from Independence, Texas. He was taken by the Pittsburgh Pirates, the same team his father, Chance, played in 14 games for in 1998. The elder Sanford also played five games for the Dodgers in 1999.
A switch-hitting outfielder from Arizona State, Nick McLain, was picked 78th overall by the Chicago White Sox. He has two brothers already playing professionally, Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain and Sean McLain, who was a fifth round pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022, and is currently playing for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, the Dodgers’ Single-A affiliate in the California League.
Matt made a huge impact when he was called up to the Reds last season, but he’s been sidelined with a shoulder injury this year. The first-round pick (17th overall) by the Reds out of UCLA in 2021 is hoping to return sometime in August, but it is more likely he will not be back until next season. His bat has been
missed this year after his impressive debut in 2023. Matt hit .290, with 16 home runs, 50 RBI, 65 runs scored, and swiped 14 stolen bases in 89 games.
The Reds third-round pick, outfielder Mike Sorota from Northeastern, the 87th overall selection, is reportedly a player with a world of potential. Sorota’s great-uncle is a Hall of Famer, former New York Yankees great Whitey Ford. Ford, a tremendous lefthanded pitcher, was on six world championship teams and a 10-time All-Star.
Clark Candiotti, a righty pitcher from Arizona, was taken by San Diego with the 135th pick. His father, Tom, had a 16-year career as a knuckleball pitcher, mostly with Cleveland and the Dodgers.
On Day 3 of the draft, several more familiar names were announced as selections.
Oregon catcher Bennett Thompson was picked by the Guardians. His uncle, Jason Thompson, was a three-time All-Star first baseman.
The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Georgia Tech right-handed pitcher Dawson Brown, whose father Kevin Brown won 211 games while pitching 19 seasons. He was regarded as one of the best pitchers in the game during the late ‘90s and early 2000s.
Lucas Ramirez, a high school outfielder from Florida, was chosen by the Los Angeles Angels late in the draft. His father, Manny Ramirez, slugged 555 career home runs, 15th all time.
Another late selection, third baseman D’Angelo Ortiz, a third baseman from Miami Dade Community College, was picked by the Boston Red Sox, His father, known as Big Papi, is a Red Sox
legend after his illustrious career that included 541 home runs, 10 All-Star appearances, a World Series MVP and three World Series titles in Boston. David Ortiz was named to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2022.
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IN REMEMBRANCE OF MOM – My dear mother was born on this date 89 years ago. Even though she left us eight years ago, she is still greatly missed by all who knew her. Mom remains in my heart and thoughts daily, and she always will.
Many people strongly believe that seeing a cardinal is a sign that a beloved family member is still with us in spirit, and the bird is seen as a go-between from the great beyond to those still on Earth. This has happened to yours truly on several recent occasions when I take a brief break from writing, and take a glance out the window.
There must be some validity to the old saying that cardinals appear when angels are near; Mom enjoyed collecting cardinal figurines and her presence can be felt when I spot the vibrant red bird just outside the window.
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“The biggest thrill a ballplayer can have is when your son takes after you. That happened when my son Bobby was in his championship Little League game. He really showed me something. Struck out three times. Made an error that lost the game. Parents were throwing things at our car and swearing at us as we drove off. Gosh, I was proud.” – Bob Uecker
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“To lodge all power in one party and keep it there is to insure bad government and the sure and gradual deterioration of the public morals.” — Mark Twain
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