Kentucky vs. Georgia predictions: Can Wildcats avoid embarrassment against No. 1 team?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against No. 1 Georgia might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

A test of Kentucky’s resolve

Perhaps the most worrisome part of the Wildcats’ 31-6 loss to South Carolina was the fact that coach Mark Stoops repeatedly lamented the lack of response he saw in his players to adversity during the game in his postgame comments. Asked if he felt players quit, Stoops made sure to point out he had not used that word, but it was clear he was frustrated by the number of mental mistakes in the performance.

Stoops opened his Monday news conference this week by noting the film review of the South Carolina game did show his team played hard, just not smart.

“We were clearly undisciplined at times,” Stoops said.

Few would have predicted Kentucky to beat Georgia even if the Wildcats had looked dominant against South Carolina, but now the game sets up as a test of the ability of UK players and coaches to rally after a week of rampant negativity outside the locker room. If Georgia jumps out to an early lead, will the team fold?

The good news is players and coaches reported a renewed focus in practice this week. (Though it should be noted Stoops said he was pleased with practice before the South Carolina game too.)

“We’re welcoming the challenge,” quarterback Brock Vandagriff said. “Obviously, wish the outcome went a little different last Saturday, but at the end of the day, we’re gonna have our 12 games, 12 guarantees to go out there and play on Saturdays. And just whoever that is, we’re gonna be ready, make sure we do our due diligence. Getting ready during that week, and hopefully go out there and execute.”

The test will be even more difficult for Vandagriff and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson as they face their former team. Neither player had to worry about bouncing back from poor performances very often at Georgia.

The loss to South Carolina was actually the first defeat Dumas-Johnson had suffered in a game he started in his college career.

“I’m not used to losing them,” he said. “I don’t really got no wording of how I feel about losing. Just not used to it. Don’t plan on getting used to it either. So gotta correct some things.”

What’s next for the offensive line?

It should be noted that for all the understandable criticism of South Carolina’s offense entering last week’s game, there was a general understanding that the Gamecocks had a strong front seven on defense. It may turn out that the challenge faced by Kentucky’s offensive line last week will be one of the more difficult of the season.

But it is unlikely to be harder than the test faced this week against Georgia. So, if Kentucky could not block South Carolina what hope does Vandagriff have for enough time to pass against Georgia?

“From a protection standpoint, we know what we’ve got to do to take the next step there,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “And it starts again with me. Not as aggressive as we should have been to keep them off balance. And obviously I got to do a better job there.”

Staying out of third-and-long situations will be essential in keeping Vandagriff upright this week. It is unlikely Kentucky will find the same success running between the tackles against Georgia as it did against South Carolina, so there has to be another plan to stay ahead of the chains.

But to get the ball down field and be more aggressive, the offensive line will need to do its part.

“They’re going to get you in five one-on-ones, and you’re going to have to build a holdup in protection,” offensive line coach Eric Wolford said. “And we’ve got to do a better job. I mean, that’s the bottom line. You can’t make any excuses for it. You physically have got to get up and keep this guy from touching that guy in pass protection, and that’s what we’ve got to continue to work on and get better at.”

About those third-and-long defensive issues

Through two games, Kentucky’s defense has surrendered four conversions in third-and-8 or longer. Those high-profile miscues have brought back memories of the 2023 struggles in third-and-long situations, but defensive coordinator Brad White pushed back on the suggestion the defense still has the same issue this week.

“I know we’re all hurting from last year,” White said. “If we started from scratch this year, I don’t think people would think we have a third-and-long issue.”

To White’s point, Kentucky’s defense has stopped opponents on 12 of 18 third downs through two games. Two of the conversions came on third-and-2 or shorter.

Against South Carolina, Kentucky surrendered a 32-yard completion on third-and-14 and a 13-yard completion on third-and-11 but stopped the Gamecocks on the other five third-and-long situations. Against Southern Miss in the weather-shortened opener, Kentucky surrendered two third-and-long conversions on the same drive but ended that scoring threat with a third-and-5 interception then did not give up another third down conversion in the game.

The problem is the two third-and-long conversions from South Carolina led to points when the outcome was still in doubt.

“You don’t know when those big moments are going to rise, and you don’t know if those moments are going to be the ones that change the game,” White said. “And when those moments arose, we had some opportunities to change the momentum of the game and we let it slip through our fingers. And then they capitalized on the moments when it came for them, and that was the story of the game.”

Injury report

If the task against No. 1 Georgia was not difficult enough, Kentucky will apparently be shorthanded Saturday as well.

Starting left guard Jager Burton and backup running back Jason Patterson were both listed as doubtful on Kentucky’s first availability report of the week released Wednesday then downgraded to out in Thursday’s update. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston and right tackle Gerald Mincey were initially listed as probable but downgraded to questionable on Friday. Hairston and Mincey, both starters, were temporarily sidelined by injuries against South Carolina but did return to the game.

With Burton out, former West Virginia transfer Dylan Ray, who arrived at UK as a walk-on but started 10 games in 2023 is in line to start at left guard. Ray is also Kentucky’s top backup tackle though, so if Mincey cannot play the depth on UK’s struggling offensive line will be tested further. Wolford listed freshman guard Aba Selm and redshirt freshman tackle Malachi Wood as candidates to play more earlier this week.

Patterson’s absence should mean more carries for redshirt freshman running back Jamarion Wilcox behind starter Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. Freshman Tovani Mizell is also available but is still working out rust after returning from a torn ACL suffered as a senior in high school. Backup quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is likely to receive carries as out of the wildcat formation, especially since Vandagriff is also listed as probable on the availability report. Coaches revealed after the South Carolina game Vandagriff had been dealing with a minor shoudler injury.

Nose guard Keeshawn Silver, who left the South Carolina game early, was also listed as probable in Friday’s update.

Kentucky will also be without running back Chip Trayanum, wide receiver Hardley Gilmore, linebacker Devin Smith, defensive lineman Darrion Henry-Young, offensive tackle Courtland Ford, and nose guards Tavion Gadson and Josaih Hayes for the third consecutive game. Sophomore wide receiver Brandon White, who has yet to play significant snaps for UK in his career, is listed as questionable.

Final predictions

Georgia 24, Kentucky 3

It’s impossible to imagine Kentucky’s offense suddenly showing enough life to hang with Georgia after the South Carolina performance, but don’t be surprised if this turns into a repeat of several recent games in this series where Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs dominate with a relatively vanilla game plan. Stoops and company can show some fortitude by keeping it from a blowout, but there is unlikely to be a moment where you think Kentucky could actually pull off the upset.

MVP: Trevor Etienne

The Florida transfer made his Georgia debut last week with five carries for 78 yards and two catches for 14 yards against Tennessee Tech after being reportedly suspended for Georgia’s opener due to an offseason DUI arrest. Etienne will have something to prove in this matchup after being held to less than 50 rushing yards in losses to Kentucky in each of the last two seasons while at Florida.

The last word

“They know what it means to play here at Kentucky. They know what the expectation is. These guys have been around here long enough and they’re disappointed. But one game doesn’t define you. And I say that all the time: You got to be able to hit the delete button, learn from your mistakes and move forward and make sure that they don’t repeat themselves. But one game doesn’t define you.” — Wolford on the offensive line’s response to surrendering five sacks to South Carolina

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