The Ole Miss win altered expectations for Kentucky, but how big can the Wildcats dream?

The most likely scenario was always that Kentucky’s football team would reach its first bye week with a 3-2 record.

But the way the Wildcats reached that mark as the calendar turns to October was difficult to predict.

A blowout home loss to South Carolina crippled any offseason momentum just two weeks into the season. A near miss in a 13-12 loss to then-No. 1 Georgia righted the ship but still left doubts about an offense that failed to score a touchdown in its first two SEC games.

Then the upset win at Ole Miss flipped the script. The embarrassment from the South Carolina loss was replaced by elation and renewed dreams of a special season.

But how likely is it the Ole Miss win is a sign of things to come? Here is a look at the remaining schedule.

A pivotal three-game stretch

Had Kentucky lost to Ole Miss, the next three games against Vanderbilt, Florida and Auburn likely would have determined if Mark Stoops’ eight-season bowl streak remained alive.

Now, those games look like a chance for Kentucky to prove itself as a top-25 team.

Kentucky will host Vanderbilt and Auburn at home and travel to Gainesville. None can be considered guaranteed victories given the unpredictable results so far, but the version of the Wildcats on display since the South Carolina game should be favored in all three, especially considering UK has won three in a row against Florida.

It should be noted though that Vanderbilt already has one upset win on its résumé this season with a season-opening victory against Virginia Tech. Auburn almost upset Oklahoma on Saturday. Florida did at least climb back to .500 with a win against Mississippi State and will likely be in desperation mode by the time UK travels to Gainesville with the Wildcats the only currently unranked opponent in a stretch of six straight games for Florida.

If Stoops and company can sweep the three October games, they can at least dream of putting themselves on the fringe of playoff contention in the event of another ranked upset in November.

Three more opportunities for ranked wins

Kentucky closes the season on a brutal stretch with three of its final four games against currently ranked foes, with only the FCS matchup against Murray State as a breather.

UK travels to No. 4 Tennessee on Nov. 2 and No. 2 Texas on Nov. 16. It closes the regular season by hosting No. 22 Louisville in the annual Governor’s Cup rivalry game.

The defensive performance on display in Oxford, when the Wildcats held an Ole Miss offense that ranked at or near the top of almost every offensive statistic nationally entering the weekend, should give Kentucky fans hope that Kentucky can at least make the Tennessee and Texas games interesting. Winning in Knoxville or Austin will be a formidable task, but a Kentucky team that almost defeated Georgia and did beat Ole Miss should not be automatically counted out in either.

If Kentucky sweeps the October games and upsets Tennessee, it would be firmly in the playoff race. History suggests a 10-2 record will be needed to finish the regular season in the top 11 to earn an at-large bid, though.

Even if Kentucky loses both those games, the Governor’s Cup rivalry game could offer an opportunity to cap an eight-win regular season with another upset of the Cardinals. Louisville suffered its first loss to Notre Dame on Saturday but could still be in playoff contention by the time it faces Kentucky.

Kentucky has won five straight in the series and beat Louisville on its home field a year ago when the Cardinals were ranked No. 9 nationally. Another win against a Louisville team that has been boosted by a down ACC would be quite the rivalry statement in Jeff Brohm’s second season as Cardinals coach.

Next game

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

When: Oct. 12 at 7:45 p.m.

TV: SEC Network

Records: Vanderbilt 2-2 (0-1 SEC), Kentucky 3-2 (1-2 SEC)

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Series: Kentucky leads 49-43-4

Last meeting: Kentucky won 45-28 on Sept. 23, 2023, in Nashville.

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