How Kentucky football and Vanderbilt match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (3-2, 1-2 SEC) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2, 1-1 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s SEC football contest — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff (59.8 completion percentage, 793 passing yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions) is coming off his best game as a collegian. In UK’s 20-17 road upset of then-No. 6 Mississippi on Sept. 28, Vandagriff completed 18 of 28 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound product of Bogart, Georgia, made his best throw as a Wildcat at Ole Miss. On a fourth-and-7 from UK’s 20-yard line with around four minutes left in the game, Vandagriff hit Barion Brown in stride on a “go route” for a 63-yard gain. In his role as UK’s “change of pace QB,” former Owensboro High School star Gavin Wimsatt ran nine times for 26 yards at Ole Miss.

▪ Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia (66.7 percent passing, 973 yards, eight TDs, no picks; team-best 335 rushing yards, two touchdowns) is both the reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Week and Davey O’Brien Award National Quarterback of the Week for his play in the Commodores’ 40-35 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama last Saturday. The New Mexico State transfer completed 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns and ran for a net-56 yards to ignite the stunner over Bama. A 6-foot, 207-pound product of Albuquerque, New Mexico, Pavia has completed 77.5 percent of his throws (38 of 49) in Vandy’s three home games but only 57.1 percent (32 of 56) in the Commodores’ two previous road games.

Advantage : Vanderbilt.

Running backs

▪ Kentucky senior Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is the ninth leading rusher in the SEC with 321 yards. The 6-foot, 210-pound product of Willingboro, New Jersey, led UK in rushing in the win at Ole Miss with 47 yards on 11 carries. Having gained 156 yards on 26 rushes, redshirt freshman Jamarion Wilcox is averaging a team-best 6 yards a carry.

▪ Vanderbilt’s Sedrick Alexander (281 yards, five touchdowns, 3.9 yards a carry) has been a model of consistency in 2024. The 5-9, 199-pound sophomore from Austin, Texas, has run for between 42 and 69 yards in all five games. Last season, in Vandy’s 45-28 home loss to Kentucky, Alexander ran for 37 yards on eight carries and scored a touchdown. Redshirt freshman AJ Newberry , a 6-1, 197-pound product of Grand Prairie, Texas, is averaging 5.6 yards a carry and has gained 129 yards and scored three TDs. Newberry had a 53-yard reception in Vanderbilt’s 36-32 loss at Georgia State on Sept. 14.

Advantage : Even.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky juniors Dane Key (23 catches, 369 yards, one touchdown) and Barion Brown (17, 178, two) both came up huge in the win at Mississippi. Key, a 6-3, 210-pound Frederick Douglass High School product, had eight catches for 105 yards and a TD. Brown, the 6-1, 182-pound speedster from Nashville, had five catches for 88 yards, including the game-turning 63-yard catch (see above) that set up UK’s winning touchdown. In Kentucky’s win over Vandy in Nashville last year, Brown caught four passes for 105 yards and Key had four receptions for 58 yards and a TD.

▪ When Vandy upset Kentucky 24-21 in Lexington two seasons ago, Commodores wideout Quincy Skinner Jr. made the game’s biggest play. On a fourth-and-9 from the UK 49, Skinner hauled in a 40-yard pass that set up Vanderbilt’s winning TD. Now a senior, the 6-2, 205-pound Skinner, a product of Pompano Beach, Florida, is second on the Commodores with 12 catches. He has 170 receiving yards and a touchdown. Junior Sherrill (nine catches, 149 yards, two TDs) is a homegrown, 5-11, 188-pound sophomore from Nashville. In the win over Bama, Sherrill had two catches for 45 yards and a TD.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky’s Josh Kattus (one catch, 3 yards on the season) scored the game-winning touchdown in the upset win at Mississippi. Kattus caught a Gavin Wimsatt fumble near the goal line while it hung in the air and fell into the end zone. True freshman Willie Rodriguez , the Covington Catholic High School product, made his first career catch at Ole Miss, good for 25 yards.

▪ Another transfer from New Mexico State, Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers (team highs of 33 catches and 333 receiving yards; one touchdown) was one of the stars of the win over Alabama. The 6-4, 235-pound product of Denton, Texas, had six catches for 113 yards vs. the Crimson Tide. After catching only three passes in Vandy’s first two games, Stowers has 22 receptions in the past three.

Advantage : Vanderbilt.

Offensive line

▪ Super-senior center Eli Cox has been a perennial mainstay in Kentucky’s offensive interior. “He’s super bright,” Mark Stoops says of the 6-4, 309-pound product of West Jessamine High School. “He takes charge of that offensive line, makes a lot of good decisions on his call, what he’s calling, what he’s seeing, with protections, and he is a tremendous leader.”

▪ Vanderbilt junior left tackle Gunnar Hansen was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week for his play in the upset of Alabama. A 6-5, 330-pound senior from Boca Raton, Florida, Hansen posted Vandy’s highest overall and pass block grades vs. the Crimson Tide and did not allow a QB hit.

Advantage : Vanderbilt.

Defensive line

▪ Kentucky senior end Octavious Oxendine (seven tackles, two sacks, two QB hurries) was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week for his play in the win at Ole Miss. The 6-1, 278-pound North Hardin product had two quarterback sacks and a QB hurry in the win over the Rebels. In UK’s win over Vandy last year, Oxendine had a team-high six tackles. Star tackle Deone Walker (15 tackles, half a sack, two tackles for loss, one pass breakup) had four tackles, a tackle for loss and shared in a sack at Mississippi.

▪ Vanderbilt edge Miles Capers (22 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, three pass breakups) was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week for his performance vs. Alabama. The 6-4, 235-pound senior from Sumter, South Carolina, had a fourth quarter sack of Alabama QB Jalen Milroe that led to a lost fumble for the Crimson Tide that subsequently yielded a Vandy TD drive.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky redshirt senior WLB D’Eryk Jackson (team-high 26 tackles, 2.5 TFL, three pass breakups) had seven tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss in the win at Mississippi. The 6-1, 244-pound product of Dublin, Georgia, had four tackles, an interception and a QB hurry in UK’s win at Vanderbilt last season. Georgia transfer Jamon Dumas-Johnson (20 tackles, three TFL, an interception) also made seven stops at Ole Miss, including 1.5 TFL.

▪ Vanderbilt MLB Langston Patterson is ninth in the SEC with 36 tackles. The 6-1, 230-pound junior from Nashville made seven stops vs. Alabama. WLB Bryan Longwell , a 6-1, 237-pound sophomore from Nashville, had a team-high eight tackles vs. Bama. In last season’s loss to UK, Longwell made five tackles.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Defensive backs

▪ Last season vs. Vanderbilt, Kentucky boundary cornerback Maxwell Hairston returned two interceptions for touchdowns. The 6-1, 186-pound junior from West Bloomfield, Michigan, missed the Ole Miss game for a medical reason, however, and UK listed him as “out” for the Vandy game on its initial injury report of this week. In the win at Mississippi, field cornerback JQ Hardaway played the game of his career to date, recording a team-high 11 tackles and forcing a fumble. Michigan transfer DJ Waller replaced Hairston at Ole Miss and made two tackles and broke up a pass.

▪ Vandy nickelback Randon Fontenette intercepted a Jalen Milroe pass off a deflection and returned it 29 yards for a touchdown in the win over Alabama. A transfer from TCU, the 6-2, 220-pound Fontenette is third on the Vanderbilt team with 25 tackles. Strong safety CJ Taylor (15 tackles, 1.5 TFL, one interception) and free safety De’Rickey Wright (15 tackles, one TFL, two pass breakups) are both well-seasoned seniors. Taylor made seven tackles and forced a fumble vs. UK last season.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky place-kicker Alex Raynor was named SEC co-Special Teams Player of the Week after booting two field goals in the win at Ole Miss. Dating back to last season, Raynor has now made 14 straight field goals. Punter Aidan Laros , a transfer from Tennessee Martin, kicked five times for an average of 42.8 yards a kick vs. Mississippi.

▪ Vanderbilt place-kicker Brock Taylor was named SEC co-Special Teams Player of the Week after he kicked two field goals vs. Alabama. On the season, Taylor is 9-of-12 on field goal tries and has makes from 51, 53 and 57 yards. A transfer from Ohio State, punter Jesse Mirco is averaging 44.6 yards a kick and has stopped six of his 17 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Martel Hight is averaging 18.7 yards on nine punt returns. A Rome, Georgia, product, Hight had a 57-yard punt return touchdown in Vandy’s 55-0 wipeout of Alcorn State on Sept. 7.

Advantage : Vanderbilt.

Prediction

Kentucky 23, Vanderbilt 19.

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