How Kentucky football and Florida match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (3-3, 1-3 SEC) and the Florida Gators (3-3, 1-2 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s SEC football contest — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff (59.8 percent completions, 951 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions) completed 15 of 25 throws for 158 yards and a touchdown and ran for 37 net yards on nine carries in UK’s dispiriting 20-13 home loss to Vanderbilt last week. UK continues to use former Owensboro High School star Gavin Wimsatt as a change-of-pace QB. Last week, the 6-foot-3, 227-pound Wimsatt, a former starting QB at Rutgers, carried five times for 25 yards.

▪ With Florida starting QB Graham Mertz (76.6 percent completions, 791 passing yards, six TDs, two picks) sidelined for the season due to a torn ACL, true freshman DJ Lagway is expected to make his first career SEC start vs. Kentucky. A 6-3, 239-pound product of Willis, Texas, Lagway started in place of an injured Mertz in Florida’s 45-7 strafing of FCS foe Samford in Week 2 and threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns. However, against FBS competition this season, Lagway has completed 29 of 47 passes for 309 yards with two TDs and four picks. In last week’s 23-17 overtime loss at Tennessee, Lagway hit Chimere Dike with a 27-yard touchdown throw with 29 seconds left in regulation to force OT. “The throw that he made to tie that game is quite impressive,” UK coach Mark Stoops said.

Advantage : Even.

Running backs

▪ Kentucky senior Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (380 yards, 4.6 yards a carry, four touchdowns) is ninth in the SEC in rushing. The 6-foot, 210-pound product of Willingboro, New Jersey, led the Cats with 59 yards on 12 carries in the Vandy loss. Jamarion Wilcox turned his three rushing attempts vs. Vanderbilt into 35 yards as UK coaches continue to face scrutiny over the redshirt freshman’s number of carries. On his Monday night radio show, Mark Stoops said Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum — projected in the preseason to be UK’s No. 1 back but sidelined all season to date after breaking a hand — could make his season debut in Gainesville. Trayanum was listed as “questionable” to play on Kentucky’s initial injury report of the week.

▪ Florida star Montrell Johnson Jr . (373 rushing yards, 5.3 yards a carry, four TDs) had one of his best games of the season in the loss at Tennessee, rushing 12 times for 85 yards. A 5-11, 216-pound senior from New Orleans, Johnson has carried 17 times for 104 yards in two prior games vs. UK. Jadan Baugh (153 rushing yards, 4.9 yards a carry) and Ja’Kobi Jackson (109, 5.7) fill out the Gators’ rotation.

Advantage : Even.

Wide receivers

▪ Over the prior three games, Kentucky junior Dane Key (31 catches, 452 yards, two TDs) has emerged as UK’s go-to receiver. In that trio of contests, Key has caught 23 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns. On the debit side, the 6-3, 210-pound junior from Frederick Douglass High School had a costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and lost a fumble in the loss to Vanderbilt. Junior Barion Brown (20, 214, two) caught three passes for 36 yards and ran once for 10 yards vs. Vandy.

▪ Six different Florida wideouts have caught at least one touchdown pass in 2024. Elijhah Badger (19 catches, 376 yards, two TDs), Chimere Dike (19, 353, 2) and Eugene Wilson III (18, 226, 1) lead a deep rotation. A transfer from Wisconsin, Dike had a big game at Tennessee with four receptions for 76 yards and the game-tying TD.

Advantage : Florida.

Tight ends

▪ With Kentucky struggling to pass protect on its offensive flanks, UK tight ends are giving up running pass routes to help with protection. Jordan Dingle caught one pass for 8 yards last week vs. Vanderbilt. The 6-4, 242-pound junior from Bowling Green leads UK tight ends on the season with seven catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.

▪ Florida’s Arlis Boardingham (13 catches, 108 yards, two TDs) had three catches last week vs. Tennessee for 40 yards and a touchdown. Hayden Hansen (nine, 145, one) also caught three passes for 40 yards vs. UT.

Advantage : Florida.

Offensive line

▪ Kentucky offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan indicated that tackle Courtland Ford , sidelined all season after undergoing wrist surgery, could make his season debut at Florida. Ford started twice for UK in 2023 and made 11 career stats at USC before transferring to Kentucky. Redshirt freshman tackle Malachi Wood , the former Madison Central standout, was lined up at tight end on several plays vs. Vandy. “We wanted to put him in there, and just get more physical on the backside there in possible protections,” Mark Stoops said of the 6-8, 320-pound Wood.

▪ Florida center Jake Slaughter anchors an offensive front that has given up only eight quarterback sacks all season. A 6-4 1/2, 308-pound redshirt junior, Slaughter grades out as the No. 8 center in the FBS in pass blocking (85.2) and as the No. 21 center overall (73.5).

Advantage : Florida.

Defensive line

▪ Kentucky star junior tackle Deone Walker (20 tackles, two tackles for loss, half a QB sack, one pass breakup) had a season-high five tackles vs. Vanderbilt. Senior end Tre’vonn Rybka (15 tackles, 2.5 TFL, one sack, two QB hurries) made four stops vs. Vandy and has nine tackles combined in UK’s past three games.

▪ Florida end Tyreak Sapp has been disruptive. The 6-3, 272-pound junior from Fort Lauderdale has 23 tackles, five tackles for loss, 3.5 QB sacks, three QB hurries and has forced a fumble. Rush end T.J. Searcy made six tackles vs. UK in the Gators’ 33-14 loss to the Wildcats last season in Lexington.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky MLB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (29 tackles, five TFL, 1.5 sacks, one interception) tied for the team lead vs. Vanderbilt with nine tackles. The Georgia transfer also had a sack and two TFL vs. the Commodores. WLB D’Eryk Jackson (team-high 33 tackles, one sack, 4.5 TFL, three pass breakups) made seven tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack and intercepted a pass vs. Vandy.

▪ A transfer from Northern Illinois, Florida SLB George Gumbs Jr . plays downhill. The 6-4, 249-pound Chicago product has made five TFL and three QB sacks this season. WLB Grayson Howard has made 29 tackles and leads the SEC in fumble recoveries with two.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky free safety Jordan Lovett made nine tackles, five of them solo, vs. Vanderbilt. On the season, the North Hardin alumnus has made 27 tackles. On its initial injury report, UK again lists boundary cornerback Maxwell Hairston as “out” for this week’s game. It will be the third straight game Hairston has missed.

▪ Florida free safety Jordan Castell leads the Gators in tackles (30) and is tied for the team lead in pass breakups (four). Nickelback Sharif Denson (20 tackles, 3.5 TFL, one sack, one interception, one forced fumble) returned an interception 20 yards last week at Tennessee.

Advantage : Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky had errant exchanges between snapper Alex McLaughlin and holder Wilson Berry that denied place-kicker Alex Raynor a chance to kick a field goal and a PAT in the Vandy loss. When he gets a chance, Raynor is perfect on the season, 11-of-11 on field goals and 12-of-12 on PATs. Punter Aidan Laros , a transfer from Tennessee Martin, kicked twice vs. Vandy for an average of 40 yards. He is averaging 44 yards on eight punts on the season.

▪ Florida punter Jeremy Crawshaw is one of the SEC’s best. On 22 punts, Crawshaw is averaging 45.5 yards and has stopped 12 of his kicks inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Place-kicker Trey Smack is 5-of-7 on field goal tries with a long make of 47 yards. Punter returner Chimere Dike leads the SEC with an average of 19.6 yards on eight returns.

Advantage : Florida.

Prediction

Florida 21, Kentucky 19.

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