Kentucky vs. Florida prediction: Can UK bounce back with fourth straight win over Gators?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game at Florida might play out at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday.

Discipline, discipline, discipline

Unlike after the South Carolina game when UK coach Mark Stoops walked back some of his initial displeasure expressed in the postgame news conference two days later at his normal Monday presser, this week Stoops doubled down on his initial assessment of the Vanderbilt performance.

“There’s a very thin line between success and failure and we are definitely shooting ourselves in the foot,” Stoops said.

Acknowledging the discipline issues that plagued Kentucky in the Vanderbilt loss, which manifested in 12 penalties for 106 yards, is essential to correcting the mistakes, but fixing the problem is not that simple.

Fans might advocate for Stoops simply benching players who lack the discipline and focus needed to win close games, but that strategy will not help Kentucky win many games if the mistakes are coming from some of the Wildcats’ best players.

“I don’t want to call out certain players because one of the players that made a couple mistakes has been the most consistent player on our team, on the field and off the field,” Stoops said, apparently alluding to wide receiver Dane Key. “So, I’m not putting that just on him. I recognize the good in some of these guys, and one in particular that made a couple mistakes, that has been the most consistent player on our team.

“... To me, it’s not like always who. It’s why. Why are we doing these things? That’s obviously my issue. And how can we get it corrected? How can we be the least penalized team, how can we be very disciplined, and then look so undisciplined at times? Well, because it’s magnified, because we had these drives, get the ball to the 6-inch line, don’t get it, lose the game, everything gets magnified.”

The good news is for whatever reason, Kentucky has played better on the road than at home in recent years. The mistakes on display in frustrating home losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt were absent in the road upset of Ole Miss.

Returning to the road comes at a good time for Kentucky this week. Stoops and company must fix the perplexing home performance to salvage the season, but they can bounce back this week by repeating the focus on display in Oxford.

“When you go on the road, every environment’s so hostile in this league that I think guys take up their discipline a notch, knowing that it’s a road game, knowing it’s going to be loud, knowing the environment,’ center Eli Cox said. “And I think we need to be able to have the maturity as a team to carry that intensity and that attention to detail at home and on the road.”

New faces might be in the game plan

While Stoops is not going to simply bench any player who makes a mental error, it does seem like coaches have reached a breaking point with some of the issues that have been consistent throughout the first half of the season.

“I think we’re going to see more people rotating in and playing for sure this week (on the offensive line),” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “So, I think guys like Malachi Wood, Courtland Ford, we’re definitely going to need to get some more guys going to give them an opportunity.”

While Kentucky is making every effort to cover for its pass protection deficiencies by using tight ends as extra blockers and focusing on plays with protection schemes the line has demonstrated it can execute, holding penalties from that group still crippled any hope of a late comeback against Vanderbilt. Ford, who played extensively at offensive tackle a year ago but missed the first six games while recovering from offseason surgery, looks like the best hope for competition improving the play there. Wood, a 6-foot-8 redshirt freshman, is far from a finished product but has the length to contribute at tackle as well.

Freshman wide receiver Hardley Gilmore made his UK debut last week against Vanderbilt but played only a handful of snaps. As he shakes off rust from an injury that forced him to miss the first five games, he could become a target for quarterback Brock Vandagriff as UK looks for more explosive plays.

Running back Chip Trayanum, projected to start after transferring from Ohio State, might finally be ready to make his UK debut after suffering a hand injury in camp. Even if Trayanum is back, Kentucky probably needs to find more opportunities for big-play threat Jamarion Wilcox as the redshirt freshman works to prove coaches can trust him on the field.

Stoops also acknowledged he and special teams coordinator Jay Boulware have considered a change at holder after Wilson Berry mishandled two snaps on kicks against Vanderbilt.

The new faces could help, but it is unrealistic to expect wholesale personnel changes at this point in the season.

Injury report

UK will be without star cornerback Maxwell Hairston for the third consecutive game due to an undisclosed medical issue. Defensive linemen Josaih Hayes, Darrion Henry-Young and Tavion Gadson remain out with long-term injuries.

Trayanum, freshman cornerback Tehryon Nichols and freshman kicker Jacob Kauwe were listed as questionable Wednesday. The status of Nichols, who did not play against Vanderbilt after dislocating his shoulder at Ole Miss, could be particularly important as UK looks to replace Hairston. Even if healthy, Kauwe is only expected to play in the event Kentucky needs a 60-plus yard field goal in a key moment.

Inside linebacker Jayvant Brown (out) was the only new addition to Wednesday’s availability report. Brown has not played significant snaps on defense this year but was being counted on for depth behind D’Eryk Jackson, Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Alex Afari after coaches decided to redshirt veteran Daveren Rayner. Rayner can appear in one more game during the regular season and preserve his redshirt, so he will probably be available in an emergency situation.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 24, Florida 21

Florida is desperate and at home, but this Kentucky team is just better on the road. Given UK’s recent success in the series and the fact that much-hyped Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway is making his first SEC start, I’ll take the Wildcats to bounce back from the Vanderbilt game. That doesn’t mean I have any confidence about UK righting the ship long enough to silence critics in the second half, but for one week the recent road success should help build confidence.

MVP: J.J. Weaver

This game is personal for UK’s sixth-year senior edge rusher. Weaver, who was born in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, has certainly not forgotten it was against Florida he suffered a season-ending ACL tear in 2020 on a play Gators tight end Kyle Pitts later posted a picture of to Instagram that he tagged Weaver in. In his career, Weaver has 19 tackles, one sack and one interception against Florida. He leads UK with four sacks this season.

The final word

“The way this team felt in the locker room after (Vanderbilt) I think was indicative of the way we need to correct things. And I don’t think we really need to bark and talk at each other more about it. Sometimes it’s not really the way to go. I think this team understands where it fell short or disappointed the fans, disappointed ourselves and what we need to do to correct it moving forward.” — Cox on players’ mindset after the Vanderbilt loss

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