Six years ago, the race in the Lexington-based 6th Congressional District had the buzz of a presidential battleground state.
Millions of dollars poured onto the airwaves, attacks flung early and often, and there was a palpable sense that the incumbent Republican could actually fall.
Andy Barr did not go down — but his final margin over the exceptionally funded Amy McGrath amounted to a verifiable squeaker. One of the most aggressively contested House campaigns in the country in 2018 ended up decided by a field goal at 51% to 48%.
This year, Barr’s Democratic opponent is a former write-in candidate who has just a thousand dollars in his campaign account and is already down a campaign manager.
Kentucky’s 6th District is the furthest thing from a battleground. It’s not even on the radar of most national Democrats and even Kentucky Democrats acknowledge some delusion is necessary to swallow the long odds.
What happened?
The district fits neatly into a national trend of House districts becoming more partisan and less competitive, due to legislative redistricting, hardening national polarization of politics at all levels and a Democratic Party that has all but explicitly chosen to cede races to Republicans in order to conserve resources for smaller races.
“There’s going to have to be a real specific well-known name that can raise money to do it. And we’re not just getting that right now,” said Nema Brewer, a longtime Fayette County Democrat who is an organizer for KY120 United-AFT, a union that represents educators, state employees and school staff members.
Brewer and other Democrats say the state and local parties will instead focus their energy and resources on winnable legislative races in an attempt to pierce the GOP’s supermajority under the dome in Frankfort.
“You gotta start picking and choosing your battles right now. Because every one counts,” Brewer said. “We got to shore some things up; we got to focus on some local and our state.”
After eking out a win over McGrath in 2018, Barr went on to breeze by his 2020 opponent, Josh Hicks, by 16 percentage points.
In 2022, he drew Geoff Young, a perpetual candidate many Democrats view as a gadfly. Barr crushed him by 30 points.
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Randy Cravens, the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2024, wasn’t recruited by any state Democratic leader into the race. His disappointment with Young as the nominee last round lured him to run as an independent . He cobbled together about 9,000 votes, or 3.5%, two years ago without a party banner.
That was enough to convince him to try again.
There’s also the fact that no one else was stepping up to do it.
Cravens is currently searching for someone to run his campaign after his first manager left his bid for a full-time city government role. He has not yet had a conversation with the commonwealth’s most important Democrat — Gov. Andy Beshear — but would welcome his endorsement. And he does not expect any financial assistance from the state party.
“The focus will be on the state House races that are winnable,” Cravens acknowledged. “They’re going to get the lion’s share from the state party.”
Morgan Eaves, the executive director of the Kentucky Democratic Party, only said she was committed to making sure all candidates have the support needed to communicate.
Cravens will instead rely on face-to-face messaging, particularly in the district’s outlying counties, stressing Barr’s “inexplicable hard right turn” and his votes against reproductive rights.
“He’s had 12 years and $2 million in salary and what’s come of it?” Cravens asked.
A spokesman for Barr’s campaign said the Republican operates “one of the most efficient and proactive congressional offices in the country,” calling its dedication to constituent services “unparalleled.”
“Congressman Barr has always said, ‘If you do the job you are elected to do, the politics takes care of itself,’” said Tyler Staker, Barr’s spokesman.
Money also usually takes care of entrenched incumbency.
Barr reported $3.8 million cash on hand in May’s campaign finance filings.
Whereas McGrath had raised $8 million for her 2018 challenge, Cravens will be fortunate if he has tens of thousands of dollars to spend come the fall.
“That’s some heavy lifting, brother,” acknowledged Brewer.
What it means for Kentucky voters
A New York Times analysis in 2022 found that nearly 90% of the U.S. House could be occupied by members who face nearly zero threat of losing a general election. Inside Elections, another outlet that provides nonpartisan analysis of House races, deems only 10 races as true toss-ups in the 2024 cycle.
These double-digit partisan districts are not unique to Kentucky. It’s the trend almost everywhere, designed by state lawmakers to preserve their respective party’s federal lawmakers.
The GOP supermajority in the Kentucky legislature redrew the Congressional districts in 2022 , removing Franklin County from the 6th District — which includes the state capital of Frankfort — and adding in deep red Mercer and Garrard counties.
But sitting inside a safe red seat means that Barr can stray outside the moderating lines that competitive races force politicians to play within.
Free from having to court many Democratic voters, Barr is free to appeal to the Republican base which will determine the victor of the next competitive U.S. Senate primary, potentially as early as the spring of 2026.
Barr is seen as a top-tier candidate to replace Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell whenever the senior senator publicly announces his retirement.
For now, Cravens’ argument against Barr is that he’s slid too far to the right in the intervening years.
“He’s turning toward the Trump wing of the Republican primary, like the statement he made about the Jan. 6 convicts ,” Cravens said. “That’s absurd.
“That’s not a position in line with the vast majority of Kentuckians.”
Staker branded that critique “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” and readily leaned into the presidential race as a way to frame the choice in the 6th Congressional District.
“It is evident that he is desperately trying to make this election about President Trump, but in reality, it is about [President] Biden and his failed policies that have caused record high inflation, a national security crisis at our southern border, and rampant violent crime that continues to terrorize our citizens,” Staker said.
But that national aperture is what worries some Kentucky Democrats, like Martina Jackson from Madison County. She recalls that one of Barr’s primary tactics that first won him the seat in 2012 was to nationalize the race against Rep. Ben Chandler.
“He focused on Barack Obama, slinging mud there. That shift has played a role in the way people are invested in local issues,” Jackson said. “It kind of takes away from what’s happening in Kentucky and what needs to happen. People are focused on these national issues, some of which may not actually impact us.”
Jack Dulworth, a Democratic National Committee member from Kentucky, named Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman and former Lexington Mayor Jim Gray as candidates who would immediately command credibility, resources and attention with the ability to appeal to moderates who populate the Lexington metropolitan area.
“You’ve got a have a candidate who really, really goes after it,” said McGrath, who now runs two political action committees that mostly do work outside of Kentucky. “When I ran, that was my full-time job. That’s really hard to do for a lot of people.”
But that fantasy Democratic candidate may not arise until the 6th Congressional District becomes an open seat, seeding the ambition needed to seize a rare opportunity.
“It’s always more competitive when you’re not going against an incumbent,” said McGrath, who didn’t rule out another run at some point. “Is it winnable? Redistricting made it so much worse, so I don’t know.”
In the last decade, the highest turnout 6th District Congressional election came in 2020 when 378,000 central Kentuckians showed up for the 2020 presidential race between Trump and Biden. In midterm years, participation slumps to around 245,000 voters.
This year, in a ruby red state Trump carried by 26 points last time, there may not be much incentive for persuadable voters to come out, especially if there isn’t a belief Barr has a credible challenger.
The result: Gradual disengagement.
“It makes people feel like there’s no hope in the process of voting and in running for office,” said Jackson, who admittedly steeps herself in optimism despite the present odds.
“In politics you have to have a little bit of delusion to have that hope.”
‘All politics is national’: How Kentucky’s congressional districts have slid off the map
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